黄河流域水资源可再生性评价指标体系与评价方法  

Index system and method for assessing water resources renewabili ty of the Yellow River Basin

作　　者：沈珍瑶[1] 杨志峰[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学环境科学研究所

出　　处：《自然资源学报》2002年第2期188-197,共10页Journal of Natural Resources

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展规划项目(G1999043605)

摘　　要：基于定性分析结果初步建立了黄河流域水资源可再生性评价指标体系,该指标体系共有32个指标,分别反映水资源可再生性的天然、天然—人为复合及社会三大特性。对黄河流域9个行政分区、19个流域二级分区的所有32个指标值进行了获取工作,获取了其中大部分指标值。针对黄河流域的实际资料,利用灰色关联方法与主成分分析方法对定性分析所得的指标体系进行了筛选,最终确定19个指标作为评价指标。同时,探讨了水资源可再生性评价标准的建立问题,建立了以黄河流域资料为基准及以全国资料为基准的两个评价标准,认为在进行实际评价时,应利用以全国资料为基准的评价标准。利用主成分赋权法进行了19个评价指标权重的确定工作。最后利用灰关联分析方法与模糊综合评判法对黄河流域9个行政分区、19个流域二级分区的水资源可再生性进行了评价,总的结论为黄河流域水资源总体上可再生能力较弱,不同行政分区与流域二级分区的水资源可再生能力在弱—中等之间。Based on qualitative analysis of water resources renewability,the assessment index system of the Yellow River water resources renewability is established.There are32indexes al-together,which reflect natural,natural-artificial compound and social characteristic s of the renew-ablity of water resources.The values of these indexes in9administrative divisions consisting of19second-order drainage areas of the Yellow River are obtained.The gray associate method and principal component analytical method are used to screen the index system,and19indexes are selected as final assessment indexes.Two kinds of assessment standards of water resources re-newability are established,one is based on the data of Yellow River Basin,the other is based on the data of the whole China.It is pointed out that the assessment standard based on the data of the whole China should be used in actual assessment.Then the principal component weight method is used to determine the weight of19assessment indexes.Finally,the gray asso ciate analysis method and fuzzy synthesis judgement method are used to assess the water re sources re-newability of the9administrative divisions and19second-order drainage areas of the Yellow River.The result shows that the water resources renewability of the Yellow River is rather low,and the water resources renewability of the9administrative divisions and19second-order drainage areas is from moderate to low.

关 键 词：水资源可再生性 指标体系 评价标准 权重 评价方法 黄河流域 可再生能力 

分 类 号：TV213[水利工程—水文学及水资源] X824[环境科学与工程—环境工程]