喀斯特石山地区社会经济与生态环境可持续发展系统研究:以桂西北为例  

SYSTEM DYNAMIC MODEL FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC AND ECOLOGICAL ENVIRONMENT IN KARST AREA OF NORTHWEST GUANGXI PROVINCE IN CHINA

作　　者：汤顺林[1] 王世杰[1] 冯新斌[1] 程鸿德[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地球化学研究所环境地球化学国家重点实验室,贵阳550002

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2001年第3期36-40,共5页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：国家"九五"攻关项目 (编号 :96- 92 0 - 0 4 - 0 2 - 0 2 )

摘　　要：本文建立了广西西北部喀斯特石山地区可持续发展的系统动力学模型 ,并用 DYNAMO程序预测了未来2 0年桂西北地区的人口、工业、农业、第三产业、生态环境、土地资源、社会总产值、人均国民收入等的动态变化趋势。结果显示 ,该地区由于人口、工业资产增加使物质和能源消耗增长太快 ,而对污染治理的投入又太少 ,导致桂西北地区的生存环境质量下降 ,因此应当加大对污染治理的投入力度 ,改善区域环境质量 ,这是实现息烽县区域可持续发展的关键。根据区域特点探讨了桂西北喀斯特贫困山区的形成演化 ,提出了可持续发展的途径。The present paper studies the sustainable development of socio economic and ecological environment in the karst area of northwest Guangxi province in China by setting up a system dynamic model.The ecological environment of the area is discussed first.Regional sustainable development is summarized as three subsystems i.e.society,economy and environment,and seven relationships among them (Fig.1 and Table 1).Feedback cycles of the three subsystems are given(Figs.2~4).By using the method of system dynamics and DYNAMO code,a system mode for predicting the dynamic changes of population,industry,agriculture,tertiary industry,ecological environment and land resource from 1996 to 2010 is set up.The results are given (Fig.5) and it is shown that the imbalance between the increase of invest in environment and that of population and industrial property is serious,which results in the decline of regional environment quality.In the end,the evolvement and sustainable development approach of karst area in northwest Guangxi is presented (Fig.6),which is separating from poverty through ecological construction.

关 键 词：桂西北喀斯特地区 系统动力学模型 动态变化趋势 可持续发展 广西 经济发展战略 生态环境保护 

分 类 号：F127.67[经济管理—世界经济] X321.267[环境科学与工程—环境工程]