中国海台风风暴潮预报模式的研究与应用  

Research and Applications of a Forecasting Model of Typhoon Surges in China Seas

作　　者：王喜年[1] 尹庆江[1] 张保明[1] 

机构地区：[1]国家海洋环境预报中心

出　　处：《水科学进展》1991年第1期1-10,共10页Advances in Water Science

摘　　要：本文建立了一个二维的台风风暴潮动力数值模式。采用有限差分技术求解流体运动方程,方程中考虑了有限振幅的影响和科氏参数随纬度的变化,略掉了对流项。无因次分析方法被用于选取最有代表性的台风域中的气压场分布公式。该模式输出产品能够很好地反映一次风暴潮在时间和空间上的变化,便于使用。A dynamic-numerical, typhoon surge model has been developed by the authors. The model is two-dimensional in space. The equations of fluid motion are solved numerically with finite-difference skills, incorporating finite-amplitude effects and the variation of Coriolis parameter with latitude, but dropping the advec-tive terms. The method of non-dimensional analysis for widely used formulae of pressure distribution in a typhoon area was employed to choose the best representative ones of them.The model has been used in real-time forecasting of typhoon surges since 1988. Satisfactory results were obtained in the real-time predictions during more than two years when the typhoon tracks and their intensities were forecasted accurately.

关 键 词：台风 风暴潮 预报模式 

分 类 号：P457.8[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]