用津贴能促进生育吗?澳大利亚实施鼓励生育政策始末记  

Can the Fertility be Stimulated by Cash Bonus?The Experience of Australia Implementing the Policy Encouraging Childbearing

作　　者：张广宇 顾宝昌[2] ZHANG Guang-yu;GU Bao-chang(United Nations Population Division,New York 10017,USA;Center for Population and Development Studies,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China)

机构地区：[1]联合国人口司,[美]纽约10017 [2]中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心,北京100872

出　　处：《人口与发展》2018年第6期63-71,共9页Population and Development

摘　　要：随着中国2000年以来的人口普查连续报出越来越低于更替水平的生育率,实行鼓励生育措施的呼声在社会上和学术界都不时出现。实行鼓励生育的措施真能促进生育率的回升吗?本文就澳大利亚实施鼓励生育政策的情况展开分析。面对低生育率,澳大利亚政府从2004年开始实行"育儿奖励"的政策以图鼓励生育,并不断加码。鼓励生育的政策虽然起到积极作用,但耗费巨大,作用有限,到2013年,该政策终止执行。澳大利亚的实践为我们提供了一个用津贴能否促进生育的典型案例。对育儿奖励和生育水平的关系分析表明,育儿奖励政策实施增加了财政负担但对生育率回升作用有限。作为发展中国家的中国,应谨慎推行育儿奖励的政策。Along with the repeated reporting of very low fertility in China by consecutive censuses since 2000,measures to encouraging childbearing have been proposed upon from the society and academic eircles.Can the fertility be stimulated by cash bonus?The article tries to gain insights by analyzing the case of Australia in this regard.The Australian government initiated in 2004the Baby Bonus policy aiming to stimulate childbearing,which has been further reinforced over years but was eventually terminated in 2013.The experience of Australia provided an excellent ease to examine how and how much the fertility can be stimulated by cash bonus. Analyzing the relationship between the implementation of cash bonus policy and fertility trend suggests that the cash bonus policy has brought up heavy financial burden but did not moved the fertility up much in Australia,and should therefore be considered very cautiously for a developing country such as China.

关 键 词：奖励 澳大利亚 生育 

分 类 号：C924.21[社会学—人口学]