基于系统动力学的清洁能源技术关键伴生金属可供性研究--以镓为例  

Key Associated Materials Availability in Clean Energy Technologies Based on System Dynamics——The Case Study of Gallium

作　　者：王昶[1,4] 秦雅 邵留国 宋慧玲[1] 孙桥[1] 左绿水[1,3] WANG Chang;QIN Ya;SHAO Liu-guo;SONG Hui-ling;SUN Qiao;ZUO Lv-shui(School of Business,Central South University,Changsha 410083,China;Institute of Metal Resources Strategy,Central South University,Changsha 410083,China;Sustainable Minerals Institute,The University of Queensland,St Lucia,QLD 4072,Australia;Key Laboratory of Strategic Studies,Ministry of Natural Resources,Beijing 100812,China)

机构地区：[1]中南大学商学院,湖南长沙410083 [2]中南大学金属资源战略研究院,湖南长沙410083 [3]Sustainable Minerals Institute,The University of Queensland,St Lucia,QLD 4072,Australia [4]自然资源部国土资源战略研究重点实验室,北京100812

出　　处：《系统工程》2018年第5期116-127,共12页Systems Engineering

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目(14ZDB136;15ZDA051);国家社科基金一般项目(13BGL105);国家自然科学基金重点项目(71633006);湖南省教育厅创新平台开放基金资助项目(16K101);中南大学研究生自主探索创新项目(2018zzts301).

摘　　要：清洁能源系统比传统能源系统更具金属密集性,清洁能源技术关键伴生金属可供性将成为制约清洁能源技术发展的潜在瓶颈。本文以镓为例,重点关注与清洁能源技术相关的终端需求,综合考虑载体金属氧化铝供求-价格和伴生金属镓供求-价格的相互作用关系建立系统动力学模型。在对模型进行有效性检验后,从全球经济增长率、太阳能电池发电总需求和技术进步3个参数出发设计8种情景,对全球镓可供性演化情况进行了仿真分析。结果显示:(1)在基准情景下,预计镓的需求和供给在模拟期间始终呈上升趋势,镓需求的年均增长率为12%,镓供给的年均增长率为10.7%.镓供求比的峰值出现在2039年,达最大值0.9,镓供需缺口最小;到2050年镓的供求比将降至0.6,镓的供给严重短缺,镓的价格预计将达到1262万元/吨,约为2001年的3倍;(2)情景分析结果表明,提高全球经济增长率、降低太阳能电池发电总需求和加快技术进步能够有效缓解金属镓供给短缺。提高全球经济增长率对缓解金属镓供给短缺的作用最大,加快技术进步的作用次之,而降低太阳能电池发电总需求的作用最低。最后,本文提出了化解镓资源约束的对策。Clean energy systems are more metal-intensive than traditional energy systems.Key associated materials availability has been highlighted as a potential barrier to the development of clean energy technologies.A system dynamics model is developed while considering the supply,the demand and the price of carrier metal (i.e.alumina)and associated metal (i.e. gallium).After testing the validity of the model,eight scenarios combining projections on solar PV market growth,technology advancement,and bauxite production are explored to simulate and analysis the pattern evolution of global gallium supply and demand.Simulation results indicate that:(1)In the baseline scenario,global gallium supply and demand will continue to grow during simulation.Gallium demand and supply annual growth rate will average about 12% and 10.7%.The peak of annual supply and demand ratio will occur in 2039,reaching the highest value 0.9.Gallium supply and demand gap will be the smallest.Then supply and demand ratio will fell to 0.6 in 2050,causing the great shortage of supply.Gallium prices will reach 12.6 million Yuan/t in 2050,which will be three times of 2000.(2)Scenario analysis results show that more conservative PV market projection,high-level technology advancement,and increased bauxite production can contribute more to alleviate the supply shortage risk to some degree.It is observed that bauxite production has the largest effect on the results,followed by technology advance- ment,and solar PV market penetration is in the last.Finally,this paper puts forward several countermeasures to solve resource constraints.

关 键 词：清洁能源技术 金属可供性 镓 情景分析 系统动力学 

分 类 号：F062[经济管理—政治经济学]