冰冻圈变化对经济社会系统的综合影响及其适应性管理策略  

Integrated impacts of cryosphere change on the economic and social system and its adaptive management strategies

作　　者：王世金 丁永建 效存德 WANG Shijin;DING Yongjian;XIAO Cunde(State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Sciences,Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources,Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000,China;State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology,Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院冰冻圈科学国家重点实验室,甘肃兰州730000 [2]北京师范大学地学部地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室,北京100875

出　　处：《冰川冻土》2018年第5期863-874,共12页Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金委重大项目"中国冰冻圈服务功能形成机理与综合区划研究"(41690143);国家社会科学基金项目"青藏高原多灾种自然灾害综合风险评估及其管理研究"(14BGL137);中国科学院A类战略性先导科技专项子课题"三极冰冻圈服务与功能"(XDA19070503);国家重大科学研究计划"冰冻圈变化及其影响研究"(2013CBA01808)资助

摘　　要：冰冻圈是气候系统影响最直接和最敏感的圈层。在全球变化背景下,冰冻圈变化与生物圈、岩石圈、水圈、大气圈、人类圈之间的相互作用日趋加剧。特别地,冰冻圈快速变化对其影响区经济社会系统产生了广泛而深刻的负面影响,甚至危及人类福祉、经济社会系统的健康、和谐、持续发展。鉴于冰冻圈区位劣势及其较为落后的经济水平,其应对冰冻圈变化的能力极为有限。目前,适应仍然是冰冻圈应对气候变化的主要途径。冰冻圈变化对经济社会系统的综合影响分析是适应冰冻圈快速变化的基础,其适应性管理战略则是减轻冰冻圈快速变化不利影响、降低自然和经济社会系统防御其不利影响脆弱性的最终目标。The cryosphere is the most direct and most sensitive spheres in climate system. In the context of global change,the interaction cryospheric changes with biosphere,lithosphere,hydrosphere,atmosphere and anthroposphere increasingly intensified. Especially,the rapid cryosphere changes had also a wide-ranging and profound negative impact on economic and social systems,and even endangered human well-being,and the healthy,harmonious and sustainable development of economic and social systems. Taking into account the geographical disadvantage of cryosphere and its relatively backward economic level,its ability to cope with or resist cryosphere changes is extremely limited. Currently,the adaptation is still the main way to tackle climate change impacts on cryosphere. The analysis of integrated impacts of cryosphere on economic and social system is the basis to adapt to the rapid change of cryosphere,and its adaptive management strategy is the ultimate goal to mitigate the adverse effects of rapid cryosphere changes and reduce the vulnerability for defending the adverse effects from natural,economic and social system

关 键 词：冰冻圈变化 综合影响 适应性管理 

分 类 号：P642[天文地球—工程地质学]