改进IPAT等式的可持续性评价应用——以张掖市为例  

Application of the sustainability assessment based on a renovated IPAT identity: taking Zhangye Prefecture as a case

作　　者：王肖波[1,2,3] 徐中民 WANG Xiaobo;XU Zhongmin(The Core Facilities and Services,Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Lanzhou 730000,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China;Key Laboratory of Ecohydrology of Inland River Basin,Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Lanzhou 730000,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所所级公共技术服务中心,甘肃兰州730000 [2]中国科学院大学,北京100049 [3]中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所内陆河流域生态水文重点实验室,甘肃兰州730000

出　　处：《冰川冻土》2018年第5期1056-1064,共9页Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology

基　　金：国家自然科学青年科学基金项目(41801208)

摘　　要：综合的可持续评价是对地区经济发展的准确衡量,也是科学指导地区可持续发展的重要凭借。构建了一个基于IPAT等式改进的恒等式评价模型——IPADSEFíá等式,以水资源在农业种植业方面的利用现状作为环境影响因素,综合考虑人口规模、经济增长、农业依赖度、农业产业结构、生产效益和先进农业技术应用等人文因素,结合1990-2014年的地区发展历程,对张掖的发展进程进行了分解和归因,并对发展的可持续性进行评价,得出张掖当前的发展模式对自然环境存在较强的压迫,尤其在水资源利用方面不是可持续的。而进行合理的产业结构调整、发展高附加值农业产业、继续加大应用先进农业技术可以缓解目前的水资源压力,让张掖的发展更具可持续性。Sustainability,which is used to describe a paradigm for prompting both the beautiful environment and developing economy of human society to be managed by future generations,is increasingly applied to assess the development of some regions or even a country currently. Various attempts to refine the methodologies towards the evaluation of sustainability have been made and numerous methods to measure the sustainability at all scales have been raised,while the effectiveness is still too limited and weak to construct a universal framework for sustainability evaluation. The application of sustainability making people so confused is no agreement within them;one key reason is the absence of a precise understanding of the interaction of different human behaviors. Therefore,the classical IPAT identity is referred to illustrate the component forces of environmental impacts integrated by population,affluence and technologies. Based on this,in this paper,a renovated IPAT identity,named as IPADSEF identity,has been built to consider the effect of industry structure and production efficiency. Then Zhangye Prefecture,a dry and water shortage prefecture in Northwest China,was taken as a case,where the anthropogenic driving forces have brought a severe environmental impact upon water resources in recent 20 years.Zhangye Prefecture,where there is water there is life,has been the main agricultural producer at the cost of most account of water for a long time. To analyze the forces makes for figuring out a leverage to transparently ease the pressure on the environment. According to the principle of sustainability,the managers of the prefecture should take measures to adjust the existing plans and draw up new strategies. In conclusion,adjusting industrial structure and strengthening advanced technique would help controlling the driving forces and achieving sustainable development.

关 键 词：可持续性评价 改进IPAT等式 水资源 张掖 可持续发展 

分 类 号：F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学]