低碳试点政策对农业碳排放影响的实证研究——基于双重差分模型的检验  

Empirical Analysis of the Low-Carbon Pilot Policies' Impact on Agricultural Carbon Emissions Based on DID Model

作　　者：赵爽 陈儒[1] 姜志德[1] ZHAO Shuang;CHEN Ru;JIANG Zhide(School of Economics and Management,Northwest A&F University,Yangling Shaanxi 712100,China)

机构地区：[1]西北农林科技大学经济管理学院,陕西杨凌712100

出　　处：《生态经济》2018年第12期22-28,共7页Ecological Economy

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目"低碳农业的联合生产绩效与行为机制研究"(71573212);国家自然科学基金青年项目"农户异质性;碳汇生产激励与后退耕时代生态补偿机制研究"(71403214);教育部人文社会科学基金项目"基于农户异质性视角的碳汇生产激励机制研究"(14XJC790013)

摘　　要：结合2004—2015年中国首批低碳试点省市面板数据,在测算各省农业碳排放量的基础之上,考虑克服样本选择的内生性和宏观政策影响的外生性问题,采用双重差分模型,实证分析了低碳试点政策对各省农业碳排放影响的效果及原因。结果表明:2004—2015年,5个低碳试点省农业碳排放量普遍处于持续上升态势;低碳试点政策在不同省对农业碳减排的影响效果存在一定差异,其中陕西省、湖北省和辽宁省低碳试点政策有效降低了该地区农业碳排放量,而广东省、云南省政策实施效果不明显;整体上来看,2010—2015年,低碳试点政策的实施未能对农业碳减排产生显著影响,主要原因是现行减排政策的目标偏好性,导致农业领域内碳减排的实施力度不够。Based on the panel data of the first batch of low carbon pilot provinces in China from 2004to 2015,the provincial agricultural carbon emissions were estimated,in order to overcome the endogenous problem of the sample selection and the exogenous problem of macroeconomic policies,this paper adopted the difference-in-difference model to assess the effect of pilot policies on'carbon emission in different provinces and analyze the reasons,The empirical results showed that agricultural carbon emissions in five provinces rose from 2004to 2015;the effect of low carbon pilot policies in different provinces varied,in Shaanxi,Hubei and Liaoning Provinces,the low carbon pilot policies had effectively reduced the agricultural carbon emissions;while in Guangdong and Yunnan Province,there was no obvious effect.Overall, the implementation of low carbon pilot policies failed to significantly reduce agricultural carbon emissions in the year 2010 to 2015,the main reason was that the target preference of current emission reduction policies which caused insufficient implementation of carbon emission reduction in agriculture.

关 键 词：低碳试点政策 农业碳排放 有效性 双重差分模型 

分 类 号：F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学]