中国能源消费总量的混频预测研究  

Study on Mixed-Frequency Prediction of Total Energy Consumption in China

作　　者：秦梦 孙毅[1] 刘晓明 QIN Meng;SUN Yi;LIU Xiaoming(School of Economic,Qingdao University,Qingdao Shandong 266061,China)

机构地区：[1]青岛大学经济学院,山东青岛266061

出　　处：《生态经济》2018年第12期94-98,共5页Ecological Economy

摘　　要：绿色发展理念的提出,使得绿色发展成为中国发展的一种趋势,能源消费总量作为绿色发展的一个重要指标,对其分析预测显得尤为重要。首先通过相关关系及走势图的分析,证明了运用GDP增长率预测能源消费总量增长率的可行性;而后根据MIDAS模型的建模理论,构建基于季度GDP增长率数据和年度能源消费总量增长率数据的混频模型,证明了混频模型在预测能源消费总量方面的准确性与时效性;最后基于混频模型预测出2020年中国能源消费总量为49.3亿吨标准煤,在"十三五"规划的目标范围内,但仍须加强控制力度,因此相关部门可利用季度GDP数据对年度能源消费总量进行预测,为能源政策和相关措施的制定与实施提供依据。The concept of green development has made green development an important trend in China's development.Total energy consumption is an important indicator of green development,so its analyses and prediction are particularly important. Firstly,through the analyses of correlation and the tendency chart,it proves the feasibility of using GDP growth rate to forecast total energy consumption growth rate.Then based on the modeling theory of MIDAS model,it constructs MIDAS model with quarterly GDP growth rate and annual energy consumption growth rate,and it proves the accuracy and timeliness of MIDAS model in predicting total energy consumption.Finally,based on the MIDAS model,it predicts that China's total energy consumption in 2020is 4.93billion tons of standard coal,within the target range of the "Thirteenth Five-Year"Plan. However,it is still necessary to strengthen control,so relevant departments can use quarterly GDP data to forecast annual total energy consumption,which provides basis for the formulation and implementation of energy policies and related measures.

关 键 词：能源消费总量 混频预测 MIDAS模型 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济] P754.1[天文地球—海洋科学]