西双版纳人象冲突保险产品设计及其费率厘定  

Designing the Insurance Product and Determining Insurance Rates of Human-Elephant Conflict in Xishuangbanna

作　　者：郭敏[1,2] 李丽 李云仙[3] 李雯雯[4] 邓喜庆 刘洪江[6] 代云川[7] 张宇 GUO Min;LI Li;LI Yunxian;LI Wenwen;DENG Xiqing;LIU Hongjiang;DAI Yunchuan;ZHANG Yu(School of Urban and Environment,Yunnan University of Finance and Economics,Kunming Yunnan 650221,China;Wildlife Management and Ecosystem Health Center,Yunnan University of Finance and Economics,Kunming Yunnan 650221,China;School of Finance,Yunnan University of Finance and Economics,Kunming Yunnan 650221,China;Key Laboratory for Biodiversity Science and Ecological Engineering,Ministry of Education,College of Life Science,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China;Yunnan Forestry Investigation and Planning Institute,Kunming Yunnan 650051,China;Disaster Laboratory,Yunnan University of Finance and Economics,Kunming Yunnan 650221,China;Institute of Forest Ecology,Environment and Protection,Chinese Academy of Forestry,Beijing 100091,China)

机构地区：[1]云南财经大学城市与环境学院,云南昆明650221 [2]云南财经大学野生动植物管理与生态系统健康研究中心,云南昆明650221 [3]云南财经大学金融学院,云南昆明650221 [4]北京师范大学生命科学学院教育部生物多样性与生命工程重点实验,北京100875 [5]云南省林业调查规划院,云南昆明650051 [6]云南财经大学灾害实验室,云南昆明650221 [7]中国林业科学研究院森林生态环境与保护研究所,北京100091

出　　处：《生态经济》2018年第12期201-206,共6页Ecological Economy

摘　　要：人象冲突的频繁发生,给西双版纳政府和村民带来极大不便。文章在西双版纳人象冲突风险区域评估研究成果的基础上,基于RStudio软件中fitdistrplus程序包对2011—2016年西双版纳人象冲突补偿数据的分布进行拟合,从而厘定出不同风险区域的纯保费。结果表明:无风险区域、低风险区域、中风险区域和高风险区域的单位纯保费合计分别为:1 718.33元、4 667.14元、7 578.624 5元、9 862.595元。文章从定量的角度分析缓解人象冲突的可行性措施,其研究方法和研究成果在西双版纳人象冲突肇事保费厘定上提供了较强的参考价值。Frequent occurrence of human-elephant conflict has caused a great troublesome to the local government and villagers.In this paper,loss compensation data caused by human-elephant conflicts in Xishuangbanna from 2011 to 2016 are collected and the loss distribution is then analyzed by the package "fitdistrplus"of RStudio software.According to the fitted loss distribution,insurance premium is then calculated.Results show that the premiums in the risk-free,lowrisk,middle-risk,and high-risk areas are 1718.33CNY,4667.14CNY,7578.62CNY,and 9862.59CNY,respectively. According to this paper,the risk of human-elephant conflict is quantified and a reasonable risk management approach is proposed.The methodology and results can be applied for calculate the premium of human-elephant conflict insurance.

关 键 词：人象冲突 风险值 风险区域 对数正态分布 保费厘定 

分 类 号：S863[农业科学—野生动物驯养] F842.6[农业科学—畜牧兽医]