鼠疫由马达加斯加传入我国的风险评估  

RISK ASSESSMENT OF PLAGUE INTRODUCED INTO CHINA FROM MADAGASCAR

作　　者：赵丹云[1] 朱可[2] 郭强[1] 高艳菲 郭慧琳[4] 张晓龙[5] 王静[5] 慈颖[5] ZHAO Dan-Yun;ZHU Ke;GUO Qiang;GAO Yan-Fei;GUO Hui-Lin;ZHANG Xiao-Long;WANG Jing;CI Ying(Tianjin Entry-Exit Inspection and Quarantine Bureau,Tianjin 300000,China;Shandong International Healthcare Center,Qingdao,Shandong 250000,China;Manchuria Entry-Exit Inspection and Quarantine Bureau,Manchuria,Inner Mongolia 021400,China;Beijing Entry-Exit Inspection and Quarantine Bureau,Beijing 100026;China Inspection and Quarantine Science Research Institute,Beijing 100176,China)

机构地区：[1]天津出入境检验检疫局,天津300000 [2]山东国际旅行卫生保健中心,山东青岛250000 [3]满洲里出入境检验检疫局,内蒙古满洲里021400 [4]北京出入境检验检疫局,北京100026 [5]中国检验检疫科学研究院,北京100176

出　　处：《寄生虫与医学昆虫学报》2018年第3期154-162,共9页Acta Parasitologica et Medica Entomologica Sinica

基　　金：中蒙鼠传病跨境传播风险调查项目(2017JK008);质检行业公益项目(201410176)

摘　　要：评估鼠疫经病媒生物和交通工具由非洲马达加斯加传入我国的风险,并据风险值提出风险管理措施建议。从传染病传播三要素(传染源、传播途径、易感人群),识别鼠疫传入风险的影响因素,构建马达加斯加肺鼠疫传入的风险评估体系;并结合中马贸易往来频率、截获鼠类概率,中马两地黑家鼠及印鼠客蚤分布、疫区分布、地理水文情况及港口物流情况等进行推测,进行定性和半定量传入风险评估;并根据风险值和鼠疫防治策略,提出应采取的风险管理措施。结果表明,在中国为马达加斯加第一大贸易伙伴的前提下,马达加斯加鼠疫传入我国的最可能方式为船舶、货物、集装箱工具;山东、天津至广东西南沿海为鼠疫可能传入地区;半定量风险评估分值为4 096,显示鼠疫由马达加斯加经船舶等传入我国属于中等偏低的风险,能有效控制。根据风险评估结果,对马达加斯加船舶及货物集装箱加大卫生检疫查验力度、做好鼠、蚤及疫区的监测和防治、宣传普及鼠疫相关知识是主动应对此次疫情传入风险的防控方式之一。To assess the risk of plague spreading by vectors and vehicles from Madagascar to China,and propose risk management measures according to the risk value.The factors influencing the introduction risk of plague were identified and a risk assessment system of Introduction of Pneumonic Plague from Madagascar was established via the three elements of infectious diseases transmission (sources of infection,route of transmission,susceptible population).Based on the trade frequency of China-Madagascar,probability of intercepting rodents,the distribution of Rattus rattus and Xenopsylla cheopis in China and Madagascar,distribution of epidemic area,geohydrology and port logistics etc.,qualitative and semi quantitative risk assessment was made,and the risk management measures were proposed according to the risk value and plague prevention strategy.The risk analysis showed that,under the situation that China is the largest trading partner of Madagascar,the most probable way for Madagascar plague introduced into China is ship,cargo and container tools.Coast of Zhejiang,the southwest coast of Guangdong and the southeast coast of Fujian may be risk areas of Madagascar plague introduction;semi quantitative risk assessment score is 4096,showing a low-middle rank risk of Madagascar plague introduced into China,which can be effectively controlled.According to the results of risk assess,strengthen quarantine and inspection to Madagascar ship and cargo containers,improve prevention and control of rodents,fleas and epidemic areas, and spread and popularize the knowledge about plague are the active responses to the epidemic prevention and control of the Madagascar plague risk.

关 键 词：鼠疫 马达加斯加 风险评估 

分 类 号：R181.8[医药卫生—流行病学] R516.8[医药卫生—公共卫生与预防医学]