2006~2016年中国生育状况报告--基于2017年全国生育状况抽样调查数据分析  

China Fertility Status Report,2006-2016:An Analysis Based on 2017 China Fertility Survey

作　　者：贺丹[1] 张许颖[1] 庄亚儿[1] 王志理[1] 杨胜慧[1] 姜玉[1] 赵雪晴 齐嘉楠[1] 韩枫[1] He Dan;Zhang Xuying;Zhuong Yaer;Wang Zhili;Yang Shenghui(China Population and Development Research Center)

机构地区：[1]中国人口与发展研究中心,北京100081

出　　处：《人口研究》2018年第6期35-45,共11页Population Research

摘　　要：文章使用2017年全国生育状况抽样调查数据,对全国生育水平、生育意愿、避孕方法及生育养育服务等情况进行了分析。结果表明,2006～2016年,初婚、初育年龄分别上升2.7、2.6岁。2006～2011年总和生育率大致在1.60～1.70之间,2012～2016年波动较大,2012和2016年总和生育率是近期的高点。与2006和2011年相比,2016年的年龄别生育率分布曲线明显右移。受单独两孩和全面两孩政策影响,2012年以来,二孩占出生人口的比重逐年上升,一孩则相反。2011年以来,出生性别比有所下降。育龄妇女平均理想子女数和打算生育子女数分别为1.96和1.75个。已婚有偶育龄妇女避孕率为84.7%。3～5岁幼儿入园率为80.8%,在公立与私立机构的比例分别为34.9%和65.1%。最后,文章在总结生育水平及其影响因素的基础上,对促进按政策生育提出相关建议。Based on 2017 China Fertility Survey,this paper analyzes the national fertility level,fertility intentions,contraceptive use,and childbearing and parenting services.The results show that,from 2006to 2016,the mean ages at first marriage and first birth increased by 2.7and 2.6years,respectively.The total fertility rate between 2006 and 2011was between 1.60-1.70 and fluctuated between 2012 and 2016,peaking in the years of 2012 and 2016.Compared with the curves of age-specific fertility rate in 2006 and 2011,the one in 2016 shifted significantly to the right.Affected by the selective two-child policy and the universal two-child policy,the proportion of second parity has increased since 2012, while the trend is opposite for the proportion of first parity.Since 2011,the sex ratio at birth has declined slightly.For women at childbearing ages,the ideal number of children is 1.96,while the intended number of children is 1.75.The rate of contraceptive use of currently married women at childbearing ages is 84.7%.About 80.8% of children aged 3-5 are enrolled in the kindergarten,34.9% are in public institutions and 65.1% in private institutions.The future trend of Chinese fertility is also discussed.

关 键 词：生育水平 生育意愿 避孕方法 生育养育服务 

分 类 号：C924.21[社会学—人口学]