我国信息化与城乡统筹发展水平研究——基于系统动力学的长期互动关系分析  

Research on Informatization and Urban-rural Orchestration in China——System Dynamics-based Long-term Interaction Analysis

作　　者：司先秀[1] 吕廷杰[1] SI Xian-xiu;LU Ting-jie(School of Economics and Management,Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications ,Beijing100576,China)

机构地区：[1]北京邮电大学经济管理学院

出　　处：《系统科学学报》2018年第4期118-123,共6页Chinese Journal of Systems Science

基　　金：工业和信息化部软科学研究项目《“十三五”时期信息化推进我国经济社会绿色发展的策略研究》(2016-Y-21)成果

摘　　要：系统性考察我国信息化发展水平和城乡统筹发展水平之间的长期互动关系,为利用信息通信技术(ICT)促进我国城乡经济社会协调发展提供参考。通过构建信息化对我国城乡统筹发展影响的系统动力学模型,对两者间的长期关系进行仿真分析和研究,揭示两者间的内在互动机制。仿真结果显示,若2015-2025年我国城乡统筹发展水平年均增长10. 6%,ICT基础设施水平、ICT应用消费水平以及ICT总体发展水平将分别年均增长10. 0%、8. 8%和7. 0%,意味着城乡统筹发展水平的快速增长伴随着ICT基础设施和应用消费水平的快步提高。为更好地利用ICT促进我国城乡统筹发展,应继续加强城乡ICT基础设施建设,不断推进ICT的普及和应用,使ICT惠及更广泛的城乡居民,有力支撑和服务我国新型城镇化和农业现代化建设。This paper is to systematically review the long-term interaction between informatization and urban-rural orchestration in China with an aim to provide references for promoting the coordinated development of China urban and rural areas by utilizing information and communication technologies (ICT). Through the construction of a system dynamics model of the ICT impact on the development of China urban-rural orchestration,a simulation is conducted to analyze and research the interaction and the associated underlying mechanism.The result shows,if the CAGR of China urban-rural orchestration level was at 10.6%in 2015-2025,the corresponding CAGRs of the levels of ICT Infrastructure,ICT Application and Consumption as well as overall ICT development will be 10.0%,8.8%and 7.0%respectively,which means the rapid growth of urban-rural orchestration will be accompanied by speedy increase in the levels of ICT infrastructure,application and consumption.In order to make better use of ICT to promote the de- velopment of China urban-rural orchestration,it is worth continuing to boost ICT innovation,strengthen the ICT infrastructure in urban and rural areas,enhance the popularization and application of ICT,so that ICT will benefit a wider range of urban and rural residents,and effectively support and serve China's New Urbanization and agricultural modernization.

关 键 词：系统动力学 城乡关系 城乡统筹 信息化 信息通信技术 

分 类 号：N949[自然科学总论—系统科学]