从科学和政策视角看碳预算对全球气候治理的作用  

The scientific and political views of carbon budget for global climate governance

作　　者：陈晓婷 陈迎[2] CHEN Xiao-Ting;CHEN Ying(Graduate School of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 102488,China;Institute for Urban and Environmental Studies,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 100028,China)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院研究生院,北京102488 [2]中国社会科学院城市与环境研究所,北京100028

出　　处：《气候变化研究进展》2018年第6期632-639,共8页Climate Change Research

基　　金：国家973项目"地球工程的综合影响评价和国际治理研究"课题(2015CB953603);中国CDM基金"IPCC第五次评估报告第一;第二工作组报告;综合报告及清单工作组报告支撑研究"(2013024);科技部应急项目"应对国际国内气候变化科学评估的关键问题研究"(2016)

摘　　要：IPCC第五次评估报告进一步阐述和明确了全球平均地表温升与累积CO_2排放之间的近似线性关系。尽管在科学上仍存在一定的不确定性,国际社会对2℃温升目标及所对应的全球累积碳排放空间(即全球碳预算目标)已达成一定的科学认知和政治共识。但如何将碳预算从目标要求转变为各国决策和实际行动,仍是政策制定者们所面临的一个重要问题。在此背景下,提出建立一个有效的碳预算综合管理框架,努力避免人为温室气体排放导致气候系统危害,并利用其科学和政策的双重内涵,来推动谈判进程和加大行动力度,在新型气候治理模式下推动全球减排目标的实现。IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report has further elaborated and clarified that the global mean temperature increase is nearly linearly proportional to the total cumulative carbon (CO2)emissions.Despite the scientific uncertainties,the international community has reached certain scientific and political consensus on limiting the global mean temperature increase to below 2℃ relative to the pre-industrial level and the global cumulative carbon emissions (the carbon budget)compatible with this target.But how to incorporate the goal of carbon budget into policy decisions and practical actions is still a significant issue facing the policy makers.Therefore,the discussion to establish an effective integrated carbon budget management framework aimed at avoiding human-induced greenhouse gas emissions that danger the climate system,would be a positive approach in the new model of climate governance to realize the global emission reduction target,and with its scientific and political concepts to enable the policy dialogues and enhance actions.

关 键 词：碳预算 累积碳排放 温升目标 减排 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]