近期新兴市场金融风险成因分析及应对建议  

Analysis of the Causes of Recent Emerging Financial Risks and Suggestions

作　　者：李伟 王宇纯 Li wei;Wang Yuchun(CNOOC Research Institution,Beijing 100028)

机构地区：[1]中海油研究总院,北京100028

出　　处：《对外经贸》2018年第9期84-86,95,共4页FOREIGN ECONOMIC RELATIONS & TRADE

摘　　要：近期以美国、土耳其贸易冲突,土耳其拘押美籍牧师为导火索的土耳其危机愈演愈烈,在土耳其的外资纷纷恐慌性出逃,土耳其货币里拉持续大幅贬值,悲观情绪蔓延至其他新兴市场国家。从土耳其经济发展模式、国际收支模式等方面系统分析了此次危机爆发的根源,并认为此次危机不会爆发系统性金融风险。尽管中国金融市场同样受到国际不良情绪较大影响,但中国外债水平合理、外储充裕,金融市场风险总体可控。Recently,the Turkish crisis,fueled by trade conflicts between the United States and Turkey,and the detention of American priests by Turkey,has intensified.Turkish foreign capital has fled in panic.The Turkish lira has continued to depreciate sharply and pessimism has spread to other emerging market countries.Firstly,this paper analyzes the origin of the crisis from the aspects of Turkey’s economic development model and balance of payments model,and believes that the crisis will not erupt systemic financial risk.Secondly,the article argues that although China’s financial market has also been greatly impacted by bad international sentiment,China’s foreign debt level is reasonable,foreign reserves are abundant,and financial market risks are generally controllable.Finally,aiming at the characteristics of the crisis,we put forward several countermeasures.

关 键 词：新兴市场 金融风险 强美元周期 人民币汇率 

分 类 号：F830.9[经济管理—金融学]