水库洪水资源利用风险决策模型构建及应用  

Construction and application of risk decision-making model for reservoir flood resources utilization

作　　者：黄显峰[1] 李宛谕 方国华[1] 王宗志[2] 朱丽向[3] HUANG Xianfeng;LI Wanyu;FANG Guohua;WANG Zongzhi;ZHU Lixiang(College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute ,Nanjing210029,China;Water Conservancy Bureau of Lianyungang City,Lianyungang 222000,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学水利水电学院,江苏南京210098 [2]南京水利科学研究院,江苏南京210029 [3]连云港市水利局,江苏连云港222000

出　　处：《水资源与水工程学报》2018年第5期122-127,共6页Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering

基　　金：国家重点研发计划课题(2016YFC0400909);湖南省水利科技重点项目([2016]194-21);湖南省水利科技项目([2015]245-13)

摘　　要：洪水资源利用可以缓解水资源短缺问题,但也存在风险,有必要对洪水资源利用的风险进行研究。基于洪水资源利用风险率最小、风险效益最大和风险损失最小的原则,构建了水库洪水资源利用多目标风险决策模型,该模型采用概率论与数理统计法计算风险率,C-D生产函数法与能值法计算风险效益,洪水淹没面积与单位面积损失法计算风险损失,用约束法求解模型的多目标决策问题。以江苏省石梁河水库为实例,运用风险决策模型找到了石梁河水库洪水资源利用的最佳均衡解,验证了模型的有效性与适用性。Flood resources utilization (FRU)can alleviate the shortage of water resources,but there are risks, therefore it is necessary to study the risk of FRU.Based on the principle of the minimum risk,the maximum risk benefit and the minimum risk loss of FRU,a multi -objective risk decision -making model for reservoir FRU was constructed.Probability theory and mathematical statistics method were selected to calculate the risk rate ,C-D production function method and value method were used to calculate the risk benefit,the risk loss was related to flood inundation area and unit area loss,and the multi -objective decision making problem of the model was solved by the constraint method.Taking the Shilianghe reservoir in Jiangsu province as an example,the optimal equilibrium solution of FRU of the Shilianghe reservoir was found by using the risk decision making model,and the validity and applicability of the model were verified.

关 键 词：洪水资源利用 风险率 风险效益 风险损失 风险决策模型 

分 类 号：TV213.9[水利工程—水文学及水资源]