河流洪涝对城市公共安全应急响应能力的影响研究——以上海市外环以内中心城区为例  

Evaluating the Impact of Fluvial Flooding on Urban Emergency Response Accessibility:A Case Study in the City Center of Shanghai, China

作　　者：经雅梦 殷杰[1,2] 叶明武[2] 廖邦固[3] 尹占娥[3] 许世远[1,2] Jing Yameng;Yin Jie;Ye Mingwu;Liao Banggu;Yin Zhan'e;Xu Shiyuan(Key Laboratory of Geo-information Science of the Ministry of Education,East China Normal University,Shanghai 200241,China;School of Geographic Sciences,East China Normal University,Shanghai 200241,China;Department of Geography,Shanghai Normal University,Shanghai 200234,China)

机构地区：[1]华东师范大学地理信息科学教育部重点实验室,上海200241 [2]华东师范大学地理科学学院,上海200241 [3]上海师范大学地理系,上海200234

出　　处：《地理科学》2018年第11期1924-1932,共9页Scientia Geographica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51761135024,41871164,41601568,41601566,41371493);教育部人文社科项目(17YJAZH111);中央高校基本科研业务费项目(2018ECNU-QKT001,2017ECNU-KXK013)资助~~

摘　　要：以上海市外环以内中心城区作为研究区域,采用洪涝情景模拟与GIS网络分析相结合的研究方法,评估了当前以及未来不同重现期河流洪涝情景下城市公共安全(110)应急响应能力。研究结果表明:在洪涝情景下,部分城市路网瘫痪、交通中断,应急车辆无法通行,公安应急服务空间可达性范围较正常情况明显变小,应急响应能力降低;由于高脆弱性区域(棚户区)主要位于黄浦江沿岸地区,江水漫溢导致淹没路段较多,因此部分棚户区的救援时间会出现延迟甚至失去应急救援服务。通过对河流洪涝情景下城市公共安全(110)应急响应能力的评估研究,可为城市洪涝灾害应急响应部门制定预防与应对措施提供理论和科学依据,具有重要的现实意义。In recent decades, in the context of global warming and rapid urbanization, increasing flood and waterlogging have resulted in a great threat to urban socio-economic development and public safety, and have been one of the hotpots in the field of natural hazards research. In this paper, the city center(within outer ring)of Shanghai, China has been selected as the study area. A simplified 1 D/2 D hydrodynamic model(FloodMap)was used to derive fluvial flood inundation associated with urban road network. Furthermore, GIS-based network analysis(New Service Area and New Closest Facility) was applied to evaluate the emergency responses accessibility of critical public service sectors(Public Safety 110) under normal and multiple scenarios of fluvial flooding(current state, 2030 s and 2050 s). The results show that, 1) at normal(smooth traffic) condition,emergency response service could cover almost the total research area, which could reach the majority(80%)of the study area within 15 minutes at the condition of extremely congested roads. 2) During 1 in 100 year flood scenario, part of the road network(mainly at the bank of Huangpu River) loses its capacity. As the interruption of the surrounding road network, the number of public security agency which lost the emergency response capability has also increased significantly. Among these, the most serious condition is of 22 police stations who lost emergency rescue capability, while the service area of emergency department have obviously decreased. 3) During 1 in 1000 year flood scenario, the response areas were further reduced than normal and about 1/6 of the public security organization lose their emergency response ability. Under the condition of traffic congestion, 30% of the central city couldn’t get emergency rescue. To conclude: in the flood situation, fluvial flooding have a serious influence on urban road network, leading to travel delays and disruption of emergency vehicles, along with emergency service, whose geographic coverage is smaller than normal. As the

关 键 词：河流洪涝 公共安全 应急响应 上海 

分 类 号：P954[天文地球—自然地理学]