农民工就业稳定与社会融合:完全理性与有限理性假设的比较  

Stability and Social Integration of Migrant Workers’ Employment:the Comparisons Between the Complete Rationality and the Limited Rationality Hypothesis

作　　者：孙学涛[1] 张丽娟 张广胜[3] SUN Xuetao;ZHANG Lijuan;ZHANG Guangshen

机构地区：[1]沈阳农业大学经济管理学院,沈阳110866 [2]中国社会科学院农村发展研究所,北京100732 [3]辽宁大学商学院,沈阳110136

出　　处：《农业技术经济》2018年第11期44-55,共12页Journal of Agrotechnical Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“信息能力、职业流动与新生代农民工市民化:机理与实证”(编号:71273179);辽宁省特聘教授支持计划项目

摘　　要：解决中国“三农”问题的关键是农村剩余劳动力在城市安居乐业,改革开放以来大量农村剩余劳动力逐渐向城市转移,但并未真正融入到城市实现城镇化。本文基于2014年农民工调研数据构建联立方程模型,运用迭代式3SLS方法分析不同假设条件下农民工就业稳定与社会融合之间的关系。通过回归分析发现,无论是在有限理性假设条件下还是在完全理性假设条件下,就业稳定显著促进农民工的社会融合,同时社会融合也显著促进农民工的就业稳定;完全理性会放大社会融合对农民工就业稳定的影响:衡量有限理性的变量对农民工就业稳定产生负‘向影响,但对社会融合产生正向影响:就业稳定和社会融合对高端职业和买房农民工的影响大于对低端职业和租房农民工的影响。The key to solve the "three rural issues"is that the government helps rural surplus labor force to live and work happily in the city.Since the reform and opening up,a large number of rural surplus labor force gradually have moved to the city,but they do not really integrate into the city.Based on survey data of migrant workers in 2014,this paper constructs a simultaneous equations model,and use iterative 3SLS method to analyze the relationship between employment stability and social integration of migrant workers under different assumptions.Through regression analysis,this study shows that employment stability significantly improve the social integration of migrant workers,meanwhile,the social integration significantly promote migrant workers employment stability ;Complete rationality will stability of migrant workers'employment ;The magnify the influence of social integration on the limited rational variables have a negative influence on the migrant workers'employment stability and positive effect on social integration.Compared to migrant workers who have high-end occupations and live in purchased houses,the impact of employment stability and social integration is greater for the migrant workers who have low end occupation and live in rental houses.

关 键 词：农民工 就业稳定 社会融合 有限理性 迭代式3SLS 

分 类 号：F323.6[经济管理—产业经济]