不同规模视角下产出风险对农户技术采用的影响——以苹果种植户测土配方施肥技术为例  

Technology Adoption of Farmers in Different Farm Sizes under Production Risk:A Case Study of Apple Farmers’ Formula Fertilization Technology by Soil Testing

作　　者：冯晓龙 仇焕广[1] 刘明月 FENG Xiaolong;QIU Huanguang;LIU Mingyue

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学国家发展与战略研究院,北京100872 [2]中国人民大学农业与农村发展学院,北京100872

出　　处：《农业技术经济》2018年第11期120-131,共12页Journal of Agrotechnical Economics

基　　金：国家科技重点项目(编号:CARS-28);国家自然科学基金项目(编号:71673290)

摘　　要：本文以农户技术采用理论为支撑,构建产出风险下农户技术采用行为的理论模型,采用矩方法评估农户农业产出风险水平,进而利用陕西苹果种植户微观调查数据.通过Probit模型与Tobit模型分别实证分析农户农业产出及产出风险对其测土配方施肥技术采用决策与采用强度的影响,结果表明:样本农户采用测土配方施肥技术的比例和强度分别为33.9%、23.4%,且不同规模农户之间存在差异;不同规模农户的期望产出、产出风险及产出下行风险存在较大差异,其中小规模农户的期望产出、产出风险最高,大规模农户的产出下行风险最高;期望产出与产出下行风险分别显著正向和负向影响农户技术采用决策与采用强度,期望产出显著正向影响中小规模农户的技术采用行为,而产出风险则显著负向影响大规模农户的技术采用行为;合作组织参与是影响不同规模农户测土配方施肥技术采用的共同因素,其他因素对不同规模农户技术采用行为的影响程度差异明显。Based on the theory of technology adoption and evaluated the production risk by moment methods,This paper theoretically established a model of farmers'technology adoption behavior under production risk and then used Probit model and Tobit model to analyze the effects of the output and output risk respectively on both farmers'decisions of technology adoption and their technology adoption intensity,using apple farmers,survey data in Shaanxi province.The conclusions are as foUows First,the percentage of adoption and adoption intensity of our sample are 33.9%and 23.4%,in which those who have large size farms have a higher percent of adoption and adoption intensity while farmers with small size farms have lower percentages. Second,there'are significant differences in expected output,risk and downside risk of output cantly positive influence on technology adoption among small/md medium-sized farmers while risk of output negatively affects large-sized farmers'technology adoption.Finally,whether the farmers join the cooperatives or not is the common factor affecting the farmers'adoption of technology in different farm sizes,and the influences of other factors on farmers'technoogy adoption in different farms sizes are significantly different.

关 键 词：不同规模 产出风险 技术采用 农户 矩方法 

分 类 号：F323.3[经济管理—产业经济]