气候变化和经济发展对九龙江流域水质变化的影响  

Influence of Climate Change and Economic Development on Evolution of Water Quality in Jiulong River Basin

作　　者：刘光生[1] 赵超[1] 林玉香 LIU Guang-sheng;ZHAO Chao;LIN Yu-xiang(Fujian Engineering and Research Center of Rural Sewage Treatment and Water Safety, Xiamen University of Technology,Xiamen 361024,China)

机构地区：[1]厦门理工学院福建省农村污水处理与用水安全工程研究中心,福建厦门361024

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2018年第12期30-33,120,共5页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：厦门市科技局项目(3502Z20150051);福建省自然科学基金项目(2017J01721)

摘　　要：为分析九龙江流域经济发展和气候变化对流域水质变化趋势的影响,采用主成分分析法分析了水质指标氮磷营养盐、COD含量等与气候因素和经济发展的关系。结果表明,随着九龙江流域经济的不断增长,河口区DIN和DIP浓度显著增加,水质不断恶化;经济发展对流域水质变化起主导作用,同时气候变化的影响也不可忽视;气候变化对COD浓度变化的影响超过经济发展主成分;随着气温升高和风速降低,DIN和DIP浓度显著上升,气候变化对河口区水质恶化起叠加促进作用。研究结果为流域水环境污染控制与治理提供理论基础。In order to analyze the influence of economic development and climate change on the evolution of water quality in Jiulong River Basin(JRB),principal component analysis was used to analyze the relationship between dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN),COD content and climate factors and economic development.The results showed that with the economic growth,the contents of DIN and DIP in estuary increase significantly,and water quality deteriorates continuously,economic development play a leading role in the evolution of water quality.However,the influence of climate change cannot be ignored.The negative impact of climate change principal component on COD overwhelmed the influence of economic development principal component.With the rise of temperature and wind speed declining,the contents of DIN and DIP increase significantly.Therefore,climate change made significant contribution to the deterioration of water quality.The research can provide the theoretical basis for watershed water environmentalpollution control and treatment.

关 键 词：九龙江流域 水质 经济发展 气候变化 

分 类 号：TV213[水利工程—水文学及水资源]