德国天然气外交的现状与前景——兼谈“北溪-2”天然气管道项目  

Current situation and outlook of diplomacy of German natural gas——Also on the Nord Stream 2

作　　者：张帅[1] ZHANG Shuai(School of International Studies, Yunnan University)

机构地区：[1]云南大学国际关系研究院

出　　处：《国际石油经济》2018年第11期83-90,共8页International Petroleum Economics

摘　　要：尽管德国成功地推动了能源转型,但目前德国能源格局仍是化石能源占主导。天然气对德国有着重要性和特殊性,天然气外交是德国能源外交战略中的核心议题。挪威、荷兰与俄罗斯是目前德国天然气外交的主要对象,其中俄罗斯的地位最为重要。"北溪-2"天然气管道项目建设问题是德国天然气外交面临的主要挑战,也是一个涉及多方利益的地缘政治问题。未来,随着能源转型的深入,天然气外交的重要性或许会下降,但能源外交的本质不会发生变化,灵活务实与多元化或许是德国实现国家利益最大化的最佳选择。从德国天然气外交中可得到以下启示:当今全球能源格局中化石能源仍然占主导地位;俄罗斯是影响欧盟能源问题的关键因素之一;能源政治应始终坚持多元化的方针。Although Germany has facilitated energy transition successfully and fossil fuels still play the dominant role in German energy mix.Natural gas has importance and specificity for Germany and diplomacy of natural gas is a crucial issue in strategy of German energy diplomacy.Norway,the Netherlands and Russia are the main targets of Germany's natural gas diplomacy at present and Russia is the most important among them.Germany's diplomacy of natural gas is facing a key challenge which is how to deal with problems of the Nord Stream 2.However,this project has become a geopolitical issue with multilateral interests in essence.In the future,as the energy transformation deepens,the importance of natural gas diplomacy may decline.But the nature of energy diplomacy will not change,flexibility,pragmatism,and diversification may be the best choices for Germany to maximize its national interests.The following lessons can be drawn from Germany's gas diplomacy:fossil fuels have been taking dominant position in global energy system;Russia is one of important factors for the EU's energy issues;and energy politics should keep diversified strategies.

关 键 词：德国 能源外交 天然气 俄罗斯 “北溪-2”天然气管道 地缘政治 

分 类 号：F416.22[经济管理—产业经济]