国内外小麦价格相关性及影响因素研究  

Study on the relationship between wheat price changes at home and abroad

作　　者：高云 孙一铮 郭新宇 矫健 

机构地区：[1]农业农村部规划设计研究院

出　　处：《价格理论与实践》2018年第5期71-74,共4页Price:Theory & Practice

摘　　要：我国是世界最大的小麦生产国和消费国,小麦是我国第三大粮食作物,基本占当年世界小麦生产总量的17%和消费总量的16%,其生产对保障国家粮食安全具有重要意义。本文首先梳理了以往对国内外小麦价格相关性关系研究的文献;其次,分析了国内外小麦生产供给形势研究发现:国外小麦价格波动对国内小麦价格影响程度非常有限。最后,采用协整检验和格兰杰因果检验判断国内外小麦价格之间的关系,结果表明,我国小麦产业支持政策的推行,保证了我国小麦价格的独立性,少量的国外优质小麦进口对我国小麦价格影响不大。我国应加大优质麦的种植,全面提高我国小麦质量。China is the world's largest wheat producer and consumer.Wheat is China's third largest food crop,accounting for 17% of the world's total wheat production and 16% of total consumption.Its production is of great significance to safeguarding national food security..This paper firstly combs the previous literature on the relationship between domestic and foreign wheat price. Secondly,it analyzes the domestic and foreign wheat production and supply situation and finds that the impact of foreign wheat price fluctuation on domestic wheat price is very limited.Finally, cointegration test and Granger causality test are used to judge the relationship between domestic and foreign wheat prices.The results show that the implementation of China's wheat industry support policy guarantees the independence of China's wheat price,and a small amount of foreign highquality wheat imports to China.Wheat prices have little impact.China should increase the cultivation of high-quality wheat and comprehensively improve the quality of wheat in China.

关 键 词：国内小麦价格 国外小麦价格波动 格兰杰因果检验 

分 类 号：F313.7[经济管理—产业经济]