基于系统动力学的网约车准入条件政策仿真研究  

Simulation Study on Policy of Entry Conditions of Ride-hailing Based on System Dynamics

作　　者：刘凯 李豫姣[1] 李春发 武洋[1] LIU Kai;LI Yu-jiao;LI Chun-fa;WU Yang(School of Management,Tianjin University of Technology,Tianjin 300384,China;School of Mathematical Science,Huaibei Normal University,Huaibei Anhui 235000,China)

机构地区：[1]天津理工大学管理学院,天津300384 [2]淮北师范大学数学科学学院,安徽淮北235000

出　　处：《公路交通科技》2018年第12期132-140,共9页Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(18BJY009);天津科技发展战略计划项目(17ZLZXZF00030)

摘　　要：为分析网约车准入条件政策的实施对网约车数量以及城市机动车出行量的影响,针对网约车规制政策问题的特殊性,首先运用Bertrand博弈理论构建了网约车与出租车的价格博弈模型,分析了网约车与出租车的博弈关系、最优价策略以及网约车系统各要素之间的影响关系。其次,在明确博弈变量的逻辑关系后,运用系统动力学方法,构建了以网约车为核心各因素之间相互影响的准入条件政策仿真模型。通过对现有准入条件政策的深入研究,将其归纳为车辆特征限制和司机户籍限制两方面,剖析其对网约车数量和城市机动车出行量的影响。然后,在此基础上结合博弈模型中变量的逻辑关系,绘制了因果关系图和存量流量图。通过调整政策参数,对比准入条件政策实施前后网约车数量和城市机动车出行量等变量的变化趋势。最后,以天津市网约车准入条件政策为例对模型进行了实证分析得到了仿真结论。仿真结果表明:限制车辆特征和司机户籍间接地规制了网约车数量;随着网约车数量的减少,私家车上路数量逐渐增大,城市机动车出行量也逐渐随之增大,从长远来看,不利于缓解城市交通拥堵。网约车的使用对缓解交通拥堵具有积极作用,不能盲目跟风,各地应根据自身实际情况合理制定网约车的准入条件政策,有效地引导网约车的发展。In order to analyze the impact of the implementation of the policy on the access conditions of ride- bailing on the numbers of ride-hailing and urban vehicle traveling,on the particularity of the regulation policy of the ride-hailing,first,using Bertrand game theory,the price game model of ride-hailing and taxi is built,and the game relationship between ride-hailing and taxi,the influence relation of optimal price strategy with various factors of ride-hailing system are analyzed.Second,after clarifying the logic relation of the game variables,using the method of system dynamics,a simulation model of the access condition policy based on the interaction of various factors with ride-hailing as the core is constructed.Through the detailed study of the current access condition policy,it conains 2aspects:the vehicle characteristics limitation and the driver's household registration restriction,and the impact on the numbers of ride-hailing and urban vehicle traveling are analyzed.Then,combining model,the causal relationship diagram and stock with the logical relationship of the variables in the game flow chart are drawn.By adjusting the policy parameters,the variation tendencies of the numbers of ride-hailing and urban vehicles traveling before and after the implementation of the access condition policy are compared.Finally,this model is analyzed empirically with the example of Tianjin ride-hailing access condition policy,and the simulation result is obtained.The simulation result shows that (1)the restrictions on the vehicle characteristics and driver'household registration indirectly regulate the number of ride-hailing;(2)as the number of ride-hailing decreases,the number of private cars on the roads gradually increases,and the number of urban vehicle traveling gradually increases,it is not conductive to alleviating urban traffic congestion in the long term;(3)the use of ride- hailing has a positive effect on alleviating traffic congestion but it cannot follow the trend blindly,the local governments should properly fo

关 键 词：运输经济 网约车 仿真 系统动力学 BERTRAND博弈 准入条件 

分 类 号：F224.32[经济管理—国民经济] U121[交通运输工程]