基于中心点混合正弦函数的灰色聚类评估——以工程类科技基础研究项目为例  

Performance Evaluation of S&T Projects of Engineering Type:Based on a Novel Grey Clustering Comprehensive Evaluation Model

作　　者：孙德强 许金华 陈森森 Sun Deqiang;Xu Jinhua;Chen Sensen(Institutes of Science and Development,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China;Wuxi Huishan Local Tax Bureau,Wuxi 214174,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院,北京100190 [2]无锡市惠山地方税务局,江苏无锡214174

出　　处：《科技管理研究》2018年第23期204-210,共7页Science and Technology Management Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目"碳约束条件下我国重点耗能行业低碳经济转型路径优化研究"(71673266);国家自然科学基金重点项目"面向全球资源的石油资源经济安全管理理论与实证研究"(71133005);中国工程院院士咨询项目"碳约束条件下我国油气开发利用优化研究"(2016-ZD-07-05-03)

摘　　要：工程类科技项目可以划分为基础研究项目、应用研究项目、技术开发项目、软科学项目4种,构建4种项目的指标评价体系,对其绩效情况进行评估。引入适合于"少数据、贫信息"情形的灰色系统理论,提出基于中心点混合正弦可能度函数的灰色聚类评估模型,采用较为光滑的正弦可能度函数,克服原有基于三角可能度函数的部分缺点。以某工程类科技基础研究项目中某天然气开发关键技术研究项目为例,运用该评估模型进行实证研究,结果表明该方法切实可行,所评估项目属于中绩效灰类的概率为51.88%。Engineering science and technology projects can be divided into basic research projects,applied research projects,technology development projects and soft science projects.This paper constructs the index evaluation system of four kinds of projects and evaluates their performance.The grey system theory suitable for the case of "little data, poor information"is introduced,and a grey clustering evaluation model based on the center-point mixed sinusoidal probability function is proposed,a smooth sinusoidal probability function is used to overcome some shortcomings of the original triangular probability function.Taking a natural gas development key technology research project in a basic research project of engineering science and technology as an example,the evaluation model is used to carry out empirical research,and the probability of the items being classified as medium performance ash class is 51.88%.

关 键 词：工程类科技项目 绩效 灰色系统 综合评价 灰类 

分 类 号：F224.0[经济管理—国民经济] G301[文化科学]