中国合理货币化比率的测度框架与实证研究  

An Analytical Framework and Empirical Study on Reasonable Monetization Rate in China

作　　者：高谦 何蓉[2] GAO Qian;HE Rong(Research Department,BOC International(China)Limited 100032;Corresponding Author,Intemational.Business School,Beijing Foreign Studies University 100089)

机构地区：[1]中银国际证券研究部,100032 [2]北京外国语大学国际商学院,100089

出　　处：《上海经济研究》2018年第12期103-115,共13页Shanghai Journal of Economics

摘　　要：中国M2/GDP持续上升并超过2,引起对经济效率和金融风险的担忧,为此必须研究货币供应量对国内生产总值比率的合理水平与决定因素。本文从收入流量循环模型出发,建立起一个包含货币方面与实际部门的测度框架,推导出合理货币化比率公式,测算并分析了1992--2015年合理货币化比率与流动性过剩情况。研究结论是,以合理货币化比率为标准,中国符合“货币化路径”假说,但从货币供应量对国内生产总值比率看,1998年以后流动性显著过剩。计量检验表明,中国M2/GDP受基本经济变量与外部冲击的共同影响,而外部冲击则主导了该比率不合常理的上升。由此,以合理货币化比率为依据,我们认为宏观政策要坚持“激活货币信贷存量”方向,在实体经济发展中消化和解决高M2/GDP难题。This paper develops a framework that includes currency and real economy sectors and derives the reasonable monetization rate formula.The conclusions are,China is in line with the"Monetization Path"hypothesis based on the reasonable monetization rate,and China witnessed flex point in1998.While empirical study also confirms that the high ratio of M2 to GDP in China is jointly affected by basic economic factors and easy monetary policy during the financial crisis we find that financial crisis dominates the abnormal increase of the ratio.To deal with the high level of M2/GDP,we should adopt corresponding fiscal and industrial policyand activate the stock of money and credit.

关 键 词：收入流量循环模型 M2/GDP 经济货币化 合理货币化比率 流动性过剩 

分 类 号：F01[经济管理—政治经济学]