中国煤炭依赖路径及影响因素研究  

Research on China's path of coal dependence and its influencing factors

作　　者：张磊[1] 周晶晶 ZHANG Lei;ZHOU Jing-jing(School of Management,China University of Mining and Technology,Xuzhou 221116,China)

机构地区：[1]中国矿业大学管理学院,江苏徐州221116

出　　处：《煤炭工程》2018年第12期168-172,共5页Coal Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金:市场化下的电力来源结构与输配方案优化研究"基于省际层面的视角"(71874187);国家自然科学基金"市场化情境下的动力煤贸易空间均衡模型及仿真研究"(71373261)

摘　　要：以万元GDP煤炭强度反映国民经济发展对煤炭的依赖程度,分析煤炭依赖路径的形成过程,并基于2003—2015年全国41个行业的面板数据,分析技术进步、产业结构、能源替代、固定资产投资率、劳动力投入对煤炭依赖度的影响状况,结果表明,技术进步和减少固定资产投资率降低了行业特别是重工行业的煤炭依赖;能源替代对行业的煤炭依赖有显著影响,劳动力投入减少显著促进轻工行业煤炭依赖度下降,产业结构在重工行业中呈现正向影响。We analyzed the formation process of coal path dependence and reflected the dependence of the national economic development by ten-thousand-yuan GDP as coal intensity. Based on the panel data of 41 industries from 2003 to 2015,the impact of technological progress,industrial structure,energy alternative,fixed asset investment rate and employment on coal dependence were examined. The results show that the technological progress and reduced investment in fixed assets have reduced coal dependence in industries,particularly heavy industries. Energy substitution has a significant impact on the industry’s coal dependence. Decline in employment significantly contributes to the decrease of coal dependence in light industry. The industrial structure shows a positive impact on the heavy industry.

关 键 词：煤炭依赖 面板数据 行业差异 影响因素 

分 类 号：TD-05[矿业工程]