进口消费品相关制造业供给侧改革对总产出贡献的测算--基于天际线图(Skyline Chart)与诱发模型的经验分析  

Contribution Estimate of Supply-side Reform in the Related Manufacturing Industry of Imported Consumer Goods to Total Output:An Empirical Research Based on Skyline Chart and Induced Model

作　　者：易行健 戴艳娟[3] 许华杰 YI Xing-jian;DAI Yan-juan;XU Hua-jie

机构地区：[1]广东外语外贸大学金融学院 [2]广州华南财富管理中心研究基地 [3]广东外语外贸大学经济贸易学院 [4]中国人民银行云浮市中心支行

出　　处：《国际经贸探索》2018年第12期36-52,共17页International Economics and Trade Research

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目(15ZDA013).

摘　　要：文章基于投入产出表的天际线图与诱发效应模型,分析各消费品相关制造业的供需结构并测算消费品相关行业的供给侧改革对总产出的贡献,为消费品相关行业的供给侧结构性改革提供经验证据。研究发现,进入21世纪第2个10年后,中国消费品相关制造业部门的供给结构开始逐渐落后于国内消费需求。此外,假设2016年进口相关消费品中到2020年和2025年分别有40%与70%可以由国内进行替代生产,诱发模型的测算结果表明总产出可以分别增加1. 3%与1. 8%。并且,从估算的生产诱发系数可知,1单位的进口替代可以增加8. 01个单位的总产出。This paper attempts to apply Skyline chart and induced effects model based on IO table to analyze the supply and demand structure of each manufacturing industry and estimate the contribution of supply-side reform in the related industries of imported consumer goods to the total output. The study reveals that after entering the second 10 years of the21 st century,the supply structure of manufacturing sector related to consumer goods in China has gradually lagged behind the diversified domestic consumption demand. In addition,supposing that 40 % of the related imported consumer goods in 2016 can be replaced domestically by 2020 and 70% by 2025,the calculation result based on the induced model shows that the total output can increase by 1. 3% and 1. 8% respectively. Moreover,from the estimated production-induced coefficient,it can be found that 1 unit of import substitution can increase 8. 01 units of the total output.

关 键 词：消费品需求 进口消费品 供给侧结构性改革 投入产出表 

分 类 号：F743[经济管理—国际贸易]