基于SWAT模型和SUFI-2算法的黄柏河东支流域径流模拟研究  

Application of the SWAT Model into the Runoff Simulation Based on SUFI-2 Algorithm in the East Branch of Huangbai River Basin

作　　者：万浩 董晓华[1,2] 彭涛 刘冀[1,2] 喻丹 薄会娟[1,2] 陈亮 WAN Hao;DONG Xiao-hua;PENG Tao;LIU Ji;YU Dan;BO Hui-juan;CHENG Liang(College of Hydraulic and Environmental Engineering,China Three Gorges University,Yichang 443002,China;Hubei Provincial Collaborative Innovation Center for Water Resources Security,Wuhan 430072,China)

机构地区：[1]三峡大学水利与环境学院,湖北宜昌443002 [2]水资源安全保障湖北省协同创新中心,武汉430072

出　　处：《中国农村水利水电》2018年第12期94-100,共7页China Rural Water and Hydropower

基　　金：水利部"十二五"公益性行业专项经费项目(201301066);国家自然科学基金(40701024)

摘　　要：黄柏河东支流域是宜昌市重要的水源地,该流域的高精度径流模拟对于流域水资源高效管理具有重要意义。以黄柏河东支流域为研究对象构建SWAT分布式水文模型,采用SWAT-CUP软件中的SUFI-2算法进行参数敏感性分析、参数率定、模型验证和不确定性分析,模拟2008-2016年的月径流过程。研究结果表明,选取的19个参数对于模拟的径流过程均有不同程度的影响,其中CN2、ESCO、SOL_K最为敏感。玄庙观、天福庙、西北口和尚家河站的月径流模拟过程与实测过程线吻合程度较高,在率定期和验证期所有站点的纳什系数NSE、均方根误差与标准差比值RSR、百分比偏差PBIAS均在误差范围内。不确定性分析表明,所有站点的P-factor均大于0.6,R-factor均小于1,大部分观测值落在95PPU内,说明模拟的不确定性较小。总之,所构建的SWAT模型在黄柏河东支流域具有较好的适用性,模型模拟精度高,不确定性小,能准确地模拟流域的径流过程。The east branch of Huangbai river basin is an important water source in Yichang city,it is of great importance to accurately simulate the runoff process for water resource management.In this study,the distributed Soil and Water Assessment Tool ( SWAT) model was used for monthly runoff simulation in the east branch of Huangbai river basin.Paramter sensitivity,calibration and uncertainty analysis was conducted with the observed data from 2008 to 2016 by SUFU-2 algorithm in SWAT-CUP.The sensitivity results showed that the selected 19 parameters have different influences on the simulated runoff process,among which CN2,ESCO and SOL_K are the most sensitive.Monthy calibration and validation results demonstrated good model performances.The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient ( NSE) 、ratio of root mean square error to standard deviation ( RSR) and percent bias ( PBIAS) of all sites are within the error range.The uncertainty analysis shows that P-factor of all stations are greater 0.6 while R-factor is less than 1.Most of the observations fall within 95PPU,indicating the uncertainty of the model is small.In general,the SWAT model has good applicability in the study area,with high accuracy and small uncertainty,which can accurately simulate the runoff process.

关 键 词：SWAT模型 SUFI-2算法 径流模拟 黄柏河流域 

分 类 号：TV121.1[水利工程—水文学及水资源] P334.92[天文地球—水文科学]