基于Agro-IBIS模型的新疆农田生态系统净初级生产力时空动态及其对气候变化的响应模拟  

Net Primary Productivity of Farmland Ecosystem in Xinjiang: The Spatio-temporal Dynamics and Its Response to Climate Change Based on Agro-IBIS Model

作　　者：吐热尼古丽.阿木提 罗格平[2] 殷刚 Tureniguli Amuti;Luo Geping;Yin Gang(School of Geographic Science and Tourism,Xinjiang Normal University,Urumqi 830054;State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology/Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Urumqi 830011;Institute of Arid Ecology and Environment,Xinjiang University,Urumqi 830046)

机构地区：[1]新疆师范大学地理科学与旅游学院,乌鲁木齐830054 [2]中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所/荒漠与绿洲生态国家重点实验室,乌鲁木齐830011 [3]新疆大学干旱生态环境研究所,乌鲁木齐830046

出　　处：《中国农学通报》2018年第34期91-98,共8页Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin

基　　金：国家自然科学基金"天山北坡植被净初级生产力及对气候和土地利用/覆被变化响应的模拟与实证研究;基于水;碳循序和能量的绿洲稳定性内涵分析"(41461023;U1303382);新疆师范大学博士科研启动基金"气候变化背景下新疆农田生态系统碳动态变化研究"(XJNUBS1526)

摘　　要：为系统地了解干旱区农田生态系统碳动态及其对气候变化的响应,笔者利用基于过程的新型全球动态植被模型(Agro-IBIS)模拟了1979—2009年间新疆农田生态系统净初级生产力(NPP)的时空变化,并通过相关性分析揭示农田NPP对不同气候因子和CO_2浓度变化的响应。结果表明,1979—2009年新疆农田NPP平均值为723.78 g C/(m^2·a),总碳储量约为237.15 Tg C,净农田生态系统碳交换量(NEE)年平均值为-63.36 g C/(m^2·a),并总体上呈碳汇特征。对新疆农田NPP的空间变化而言,除了在天山地区绿洲农田NPP出现较小幅度的减少外,总体变化呈逐步增加趋势。31年来,新疆农田年度NPP总量与年均气温的相关性比,与降水量的相关性较高。说明灌溉对新疆干旱区绿洲田生产力的影响远大于自然降水。经验证,Agro-IBIS模型对于新疆农田生态系统碳收支的模拟结果合理,可以为中国西北干旱区农田生态系统固碳潜力的模拟预测和科学制定区域碳管理政策提供科学依据。To systematically understand the carbon dynamics of farmland ecosystem in arid area and its response to climate change,the authors simulated the spatio-temporal changes of net primary productivity (NPP)of farmland ecosystem in Xinjiang during 1979-2009by using a new process-based dynamic global vegetation model (Agro-IBIS),and revealed the response of farmland NPP to the changes of different climatic factors and CO2 concentration through the correlation analysis.The results showed that:the average NPP of farmland in Xinjiang was 723.78g C/(m^2·a),while the average total carbon storage was 237.15 Tg C,the average annual net exchange of carbon in agroecosystem (NEE)was -63.36g C/(m^2·a),overall playing as carbon sink during 1979-2009.In terms of the spatial variation of farmland NPP in Xinjiang,the overallchange showed a gradual increasing trend except 1or a slight decrease of NPP in oasis farmland of the Tianshan Mountains.In the 31 years,the correlation between the total annual NPP and the average annual temperature was higher than that between the total annual NPP and the average annual precipitation in Xinjiang farmland, indicating that irrigation had much more effects than natural precipitation on oasis agricultural productivity in arid areas of Xinjiang.It was verified that the results of Agro-IBIS model were reasonable in simulation of the carbon budget of farmland ecosystem in Xinjiang,which could provide a scientific basis for the simulation and prediction of potential carbon sequestration of farmland ecosystem in the arid area of northwestern China and the scientific formulation of regional carbon management policies.

关 键 词：Agro-IBIS 农田生态系统 新疆 NPP 

分 类 号：S181[农业科学—农业基础科学]