中亚-里海地区油气管道战略前景及对中国能源安全的影响  

Strategic prospect of oil/gas pipeline in the region of Central Asia-Caspian Sea and its influence on China’s energy security

作　　者：史洺宇 齐梅[1] 易成高[1] 陈荣[1] 白建辉[1] SHI Mingyu;QI Mei;YI Chenggao;CHEN Rong;BAI Jianhui(Petro China Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration & Development)

机构地区：[1]中国石油勘探开发研究院

出　　处：《油气储运》2018年第12期1321-1328,共8页Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation

基　　金：国家重大科技专项“全球油气资源评价与选区选带研究”,2016ZX05029

摘　　要：苏联解体后,中亚-里海地区在复杂的社会形势和地缘政治下,采取了多元化开放型能源开发战略,许多大型跨国石油公司获得了地区资源国政府的支持,实施能源先导输出战略。地区资源国国家石油公司与跨国石油公司多方合作,打开了能源消费国的市场,以此缓解来自于俄罗斯的政治和经济压力。同一时期,被俄罗斯控制主要气源的欧盟也寻找多元化的天然气进口方式;美国通过“大中亚战略”及“新丝绸之路”,同俄罗斯在独联体国家推行的能源发展战略相对应。在能源博弈中,许多具有政治意义的管道被相继提出,包括乌津-阿特劳-萨马拉管道、中亚中央管道系统、里海财团管道、南方天然气走廊、纳布科管道、南溪管道、土耳其流管道、跨里海管道、中国-中亚管道、TAPI管道、IP管道等,其中多条管道已建成,部分管道项目进展缓慢、搁浅甚至终结。面对低油价、新形势以及中亚-里海地区油气输出博弈的“新常态”,中国石油公司应以“一带一路”为指导,充分发挥能源合作在地区的作用,积极寻求国际油气项目合作机会,将协同效应最大化,进一步扩大中国在沿途各资源国的影响力。After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the region of Central Asia-Caspian Sea adopts diversified and open energy development strategies to deal with the complicated social and geopolitics situation. A number of multinational petroleum companies get the support from the governments of resource countries in this region to implement the energy exporting guiding strategy. Many national oil companies in this region pursue multilateral cooperation with multinational oil companies and open the markets of energy consuming countries so as to relieve the political and economic pressure from Russia. Meanwhile, the European Union whose main gas sources are controlled by Russia also searches for the diversified gas import modes. The America holds the strategies of ‘the New Silk Roads’ and ‘the Great Central Asia Tactic’, which are corresponding to the energy development strategies implemented by Russia in the Commonwealth of the Independent States(CIS). During the energy game, many ‘political pipelines’ are proposed successively, including Uzyn-Atyrau-Samara Pipeline, CAC Pipeline, CPC Pipeline, South Natural Gas Corridor, Nabucco Pipeline, South Stream Pipeline, Turkish Stream Gas Pipeline, Trans-Caspian Pipeline, China-Central Asia Pipeline, TAPI Pipeline, IP Pipeline, etc. Many of them have been constructed, and some pipeline projects are moving forward slowly, or are stranded and even terminated. Facing low oil price, new situation and "new normal state" of oil/gas export game in the region of Central Asia-Caspian Sea, China shall fully exert the effect of energy cooperation in this region according to the guidance of "the Belt and Road" to search for international oil and gas cooperation opportunities, maximize the synergy effect and intensify its influence in the resource counties along "the Belt and Road" further.

关 键 词：中亚 里海 管道 油气输送 能源博弈:能源战略 一带一路 

分 类 号：TE9[石油与天然气工程—石油机械设备]