流域非点源污染模型及不确定分析方法研究进展  

Advances in research of watershed non-point source pollution models and uncertainty analysis methods

作　　者：郝改瑞 李家科[1] 李怀恩[1] 李抗彬 杨柳 HAO Gairui;LI Jiake;LI Huai'en;LI Kangbin;YANG Liu(State Key Laboratory of Eco-hydraulics in Northwest Arid Region of China,Xi'an University of Technology,Xi'an 710048;Xi'an Land Water and Electricity Measurement and Control CO.LTD,Xi'an 710043;Power China Northwest Engineering Corporation Limited,Xi'an 710065)

机构地区：[1]西安理工大学省部共建西北旱区生态水利国家重点实验室,西安710048 [2]西安兰特水电测控技术有限责任公司,西安710043 [3]中国电建西北勘测设计研究院有限公司,西安710065

出　　处：《水力发电学报》2018年第12期54-64,共11页Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(51479162);陕西省自然科学基金(2015JZ013)

摘　　要：非点源污染模型是非点源污染量化的最直接有效的途径,利用模型进行模拟的过程中存在来自非点源污染本身、模型结构和参数以及数据来源等方面的误差,导致输出结果具有一定的不确定性。针对流域非点源污染模型和非点源污染的不确定性,归纳总结了具有代表性的流域非点源污染模型的结构特征、优势和局限性,以及非点源污染模拟的不确定性分析方法及其优缺点。根据模型在实际应用中存在的问题,后续应从非点源污染机理探索研发不同资料条件下的可靠性模型,并与水土保持等工程措施等相结合,提高模型的精度;目前非点源污染的不确定性更多的是研究单一因素影响下的不确定分析,未来可结合不同类型的分析方法进行模型结构优化,并根据具体问题寻找最适合的模型结构,综合研究多系统下的不确定性方法,为模拟结果提供全面的评估。Non-point source pollution modeling is the most direct and effective way to quantify the pollution of this type. Certain errors generated in the simulation procedure, such as the one in nonpoint source, model structure, model parameters, or data sources, usually cause a large uncertainty in model outputs. This paper summarizes the structure, advantages, and limitations of the representative models of nonpoint source pollution over a watershed, and examines the uncertainties in their calculations, together with an overview on the analysis methods of the uncertainties. From these models’ previous application and existing problems, we suggest that in future modeling accuracy should be improved via adopting a correct procedure: to explore further the non-point source pollution mechanism, and then develop effective reliability models applicable to different data conditions, and combine with soil and water conservation, among other engineering measures. Most previous studies on such uncertainties focused on the uncertainty analysis of single factors, but other analysis methods should also be adopted in future to optimize model structure and find out the best structure for specific problems. And uncertainty methods for multiple systems could be systematically studied to achieve a comprehensive assessment of simulation results.

关 键 词：非点源污染模型 不确定性分析 水环境污染 敏感性 概率分析 

分 类 号：X522[环境科学与工程—环境工程]