基于改进层次分析法的小型水电工程施工风险评估分析  

Risk Assessment and Analysis of Small Hydropower Project Construction based on Improved Analytic Hierarchy Process

作　　者：刚雪 GANG Xue(Liaoning Water Conservancy and Civil Engineering Consulting Co.,Ltd.,Shenyang 110000,China)

机构地区：[1]辽宁水利土木工程咨询有限公司,沈阳110000

出　　处：《黑龙江水利科技》2018年第11期124-127,131,共5页Heilongjiang Hydraulic Science and Technology

摘　　要：文章结合小型水电工程工期短、工程量少、规模小的特征对其施工风险因素进行了识别,然后在此基础上筛选出了具有代表性的施工风险评估指标,并利用改进的层次分析法确定了各指标对评估结果的贡献率,利用所构建的评估模型评价分析了辽宁省某小型水电工程施工风险状况。研究表明:对该小型水电施工风险影响最大的因素为管理能力和技术水平,对施工风险影响最低的因素为市场法律法规的变化;评价结果与该工程实际状况具有良好的一致性,基本能反映该工程施工风险的真实水平,评价方法和理论具有一定科学性与合理性。This paper identifies the construction risk factors of small hydropower projects combined with short period of time,small amount of engineering and small scale,and then selects representative construction risk assessment indexes on this basis,and uses the improved analytic hierarchy process to determine the contribution rate of each index to the evaluation results and make use of the construction.The risk assessment of a small hydropower project in Liaoning province is evaluated and analyzed. The research shows that the most influential factors of the small hydropower construction risk are the management ability and the technical level. The factors which have the lowest influence on the construction risk are the changes in the market laws and regulations. The results of the evaluation are in good agreement with the actual situation of the project,which can basically reflect the true level of the construction risk of the project and the evaluation method. And theory has certain scientificalness and rationality.

关 键 词：小型水电工程 改进层次分析法 施工风险 评估 

分 类 号：TV52[水利工程—水利水电工程]