碳排放约束对我国经济的影响——基于动态CGE模型  

Impact of Carbon Emission Constraint on China's Economy:Based on Dynamic CGE Model

作　　者：卓骏[1] 刘伟东 丁文均 Zhuo Jun;Liu Weidong;Ding Wenjun(School of Management,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou 310058,China;School of Management,China University of Mining &Technology,Beijmg100083,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江大学管理学院,杭州310058 [2]中国矿业大学(北京)管理学院,北京100083

出　　处：《技术经济》2018年第11期102-109,共8页Journal of Technology Economics

基　　金：浙江省教育厅一般项目"基于互联网环境的精准营销绩效评价体系研究"(Y201329920)

摘　　要：构建了递归动态CGE模型,设计并模拟了基情情景、节能情景和强节能情景等不同碳减排政策对我国经济的影响,包括对宏观经济变量、产业部门的能源消费和产出、能源部门的碳税额和能源消费结构的影响。研究发现:碳税征收可以降低产业部门对高碳能源的消费,提高低碳能源和可再生能源的消费比重,通过市场机制完成对能源结构的优化,同时会对宏观经济造成不利影响。最后提出了相关政策建议,即应尽量寻求碳减排、能源结构优化与经济增长三者之间的平衡。This paper builds the recursive dynamic CGE model.It designs and simulates the influences of different carbon emission reduction policies,such as benchmark scenario,energy saving scenario and strong energy saving scenario on China’s economy,including the influences on macroeconomic variables,energy consumption and output of industrial sectors,carbon tax of energy sector and energy consumption structure.It finds that a carbon tax levy could reduce the industry department of high carbon energy consumption and increase the share of low carbon energy and renewable energy,and complete the optimization of energy structure through the market mechanism to,and cause adverse effect on macro economy.Finally,it suggests to seek carbon energy structure optimization and the balance between economic growth.

关 键 词：碳排放 碳税 能源结构 动态CGE 

分 类 号：F062.9[经济管理—政治经济学]