基于“配料法”的云南短时强降水预报概念模型建立  

Forecast Conceptual Model Establishment of Short-Time Severe Rainfall on Yunnan Based on the “Ingredients”

作　　者：何钰 陈小华 杨素雨 杨倩媛 孙绩华 HE Yu;CHEN Xiaohua;YANG Suyu;YANG Qianyuan;SUN Jihua(Yunnan Meteorological Observatory, Kunming 650100)

机构地区：[1]云南省气象台,昆明650100

出　　处：《气象》2018年第12期1542-1554,共13页Meteorological Monthly

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41565002);云南省科技厅项目(2014FB165);中国气象局预报员专项(CMAYBY2015-071)共同资助

摘　　要：本文利用云南省125个国家级自动气象站及3400个区域站统计并选取了2012—2016年5—10月的典型短时强降水个例,基于"配料法"的基本思路对其进行中尺度特征分析,最终得出适用于云南省的五类短时强降水概念模型。分析结果表明:云南省短时强降水集中出现在6—8月,且一天中存在两个明显的峰值;高空强烈的干冷平流及大风天气是判别高空冷平流类的重要依据,冷空气主要通过两条路径影响云南;分析低层暖平流类的关键系统为季风槽及孟加拉湾低压,主要影响滇中及以南地区;地面锋面是斜压类的重要特征,此类强降水主要位于700 hPa切变线及850 hPa温度锋区前侧,地面锋面附近;准正压A类短时强降水主要受西风槽及副热带高压的相互作用影响,其强降水落区分散,预报难度大;准正压B类受台风登陆后减弱的低压及其外围云系的影响,强降水位于700 hPa湿舌、850 hPa暖脊及地面辐合线共同影响的区域(一般位于滇中以南地区)。Using the short time severe rainfall data collected by 125 national automatic weather stations and 3400 regional stations in Yunnan Province, and based on the basic idea of “ingredients”, the analysis of mesoscale characteristics was done by choosing typical short time severe railfall cases from May to October in 2012-2016. Then, five types of short time severe rainfall conceptual models suitable to Yunnan Pro vince were worked out. The results show that the short time severe rainfall in Yunnan concentrates from June to August and there are two obvious peaks a day. The strong dry and cold advection and windy weather at high altitude are important bases to discriminate the upper cold advection category. Cold airs affect Yunnan mainly through two routes. Critical systems for the low level warm advection category are monsoon trough and low pressure at the Bay of Bengal, which mainly affects the central and south areas of Yunnan. The surface front has the feature of baroclinic frontogenesis category. This kind of heavy rain is mainly located in the front of 700 hPa shear and 850 hPa temperature fronts and near the surface front. The quasi barotropic A category short time severe rainfall is mainly influenced by the interaction between the westerly trough and subtropical high. Its precipitation areas are scattered and very difficult to forecast. The quasi barotropic B category is affected by the reduced low pressure after the typhoon landing and peripheral structures, and the severe rainfall is located in the area influenced by the 700 hPa wet tongue, 850 hPa warm ridge and the surface convergence line (usually located in the south area of central Yunnan).

关 键 词：配料法 短时强降水 中尺度分析 概念模型 

分 类 号：P457.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]