老龄化、遗产动机与房价  

Aging,Bequest Motives and Housing Price

作　　者：况伟大[1] 王湘君 葛玉好[2] KUANG Wei-da;WANG Xiang-jun;GE Yu-hao(Renmin Business School,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China;School of Labor and Human Resources,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学商学院,北京100872 [2]中国人民大学劳动人事学院,北京100872

出　　处：《中国软科学》2018年第12期44-55,共12页China Soft Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目<房价波动与房贷违约风险>(71373276)

摘　　要：现有文献未严格区分住房遗产动机和货币性遗产动机对房价的影响,且未解决遗产动机和房价的内生性问题。本文在区分住房遗产动机和货币性遗产动机基础上构建了老龄化、遗产动机与房价的迭代理论模型,以多套房老年家庭是否有多个子女作为住房遗产动机的工具变量,使用2006-2012年中国城市家庭住户调查(UHS)的微观数据发现,老龄化对房价有负影响,住房遗产动机及其与老龄化交互项对房价有正影响,表明住房遗产动机提高了房价,缓解了老龄化对房价的负影响。货币性遗产动机对房价的影响小于住房遗产动机。因此,为防止遗产动机助长住房泡沫,政府应适当开征遗产税,同时健全社会养老保障制度,缓解遗产动机。Extant literature does not strictly distinguish between housing bequest motive and monetary bequest motive and exploits their roles in housing prices per se.In addition,the endogeneity problem between bequest motives and housing price is not well-addressed.In terms of housing bequest motive and monetary bequest motive,this research develops a generation-overlapping model of aging,bequest motives and housing prices.Employing whether exist multiple siblings of elderly households with multiple houses as an instrument variable of housing bequest motive and the China's urban household survey databases over 2006-2012,this paper finds that aging,housing bequest motivation and their interaction have negative and positive effects on housing price,respectively,which testifies the theoretical propositions.Hence,housing bequest motives directly increase housing demand and housing price,which alleviates negative effects of aging on housing price.In addition,the effects of monetary bequest motive on housing price are rather less than that of housing bequest motive.To prevent housing bubble shaping by bequest motives,the China's governments should levy bequest tax and reform China's elderly security system to mitigate household bequest motives.

关 键 词：老龄化 住房遗产动机 房价 内生性问题 

分 类 号：F293.30[经济管理—国民经济]