辽宁省社会经济转型期水资源供需平衡趋势分析  

Tendency Analysis of Water Resources Balance between Supply and Demand during Social and Economic Transition Period in Liaoning Province

作　　者：谢明旭 XIE Ming-xu(Wang Wang Water Conservancy Station of Town &Regional Water Conservancy Station Haicheng City,Haicheng 114200,China)

机构地区：[1]海城市镇区水利服务总站感王水利站,辽宁海城114200

出　　处：《黑龙江水利科技》2018年第12期5-8,19,共5页Heilongjiang Hydraulic Science and Technology

摘　　要：针对社会经济转型期的辽宁省各区域水资源供需平衡发展趋势,从水资源丰度、供应能力、用水效率以及需水趋势方面建立了预测指标体系,并对各指标变量利用自动回归法、非线性回归法以及情景分析法进行了预测,然后对辽宁省各区域水资源供需平衡趋势利用加权求和法、AHP赋权法进行分析。结果显示:除大连市以外,其他各区域水资源供需平衡能力呈现出缓慢的增强趋势。随着预测指标对水资源供需平衡影响程度的不断变化,应及时、有效的对供需对策作出适宜的调整。In view of the development trend of water resources supply and demand balance in various regions of Liaoning Province during the period of social and economic transition,a forecasting index system was established based on the aspects of water resources abundance,supply capacity,water use efficiency and water demand trend.Then,the trend of water resources supply and demand balance in each region of Liaoning Province was analyzed by the weighted summation method and AHP weighting method.The results show that except Dalian,the balance of supply and demand of water resources in other regions appears a tendency in increasing slowly.With continuous change of the forecasting index on the balance of water supply and demand,it is necessary to make timely and effective adjustments to the supply and demand countermeasures.

关 键 词：经济转型期 供需平衡 水资源 变化趋势 辽宁省 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]