基于双重差分法的我国差别电价政策对电力消费强度影响研究  

Influence of China′s Differential Price Policy on Electricity Consumption Intensity Based on Difference-in-Difference Method

作　　者：翟玉鹏 曹俊文[2] ZHAI Yupeng;CAO Junwen(Central Branch of the people's Bank of China,Taizhou 225300,China;Research Center of Applied statistics,Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics,Nanchang 330013,China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民银行泰州市中心支行,江苏泰州225300 [2]江西财经大学应用统计研究中心,南昌330013

出　　处：《电力与能源》2018年第6期725-732,共8页Power & Energy

基　　金：江西省教育厅科学技术研究项目<低碳背景下江西省电力行业碳减排潜力及实现路径研究>(GJJ50474);国家社会科学基金项目<我国30省区市碳足迹及省际间碳转移核算研究>(13BTJ024);江西省高校人文社会科学重点研究基地研究项目<江西省节能环保产业发展现状与对策>(JD1572)

摘　　要：为探究中国进行差别电价政策的主要原因,研究了差别电价政策对电力消费强度的影响,将差别电价视为准自然实验,采用双重差分法对1999—2015年工业电力消费强度及分行业产业结构等相关统计数据进行研究,结果表明:差别电价政策对电力消费强度降低具有显著地正向效果;差别电价政策对电力消费强度的影响存在滞后性;还考察了差别电价政策实施后的2005—2015年间,实施差别电价政策对电力消费强度的边际影响效应。差别电价政策有益于高能耗行业节能减排、降低能耗以及提高能源利用效率,同时还需要国家进一步制定新电改政策,挖掘差别定价政策的作用。In order to explore the main reasons for the differential pricing policy in China,the difference-indifference method was used to study the relative intensity of industrial power consumption and industrial structure of the sub-industries from 1999 to 2015.The results show that the differential electricity pricing policy has a significant positive effect on reducing the power consumption intensity.The impact of differential electricity price policy on electricity consumption intensity is lagging behind;the marginal effect of differential electricity price policy on electricity consumption intensity from 2005 to 2015 has also been studied.The differential pricing policy is conducive to energy-saving and emission-reduction in high-energy-consuming industries,reducing energy consumption,and improving energy efficiency.At the same time,the country needs to further formulate new electricity reform policies and explore into the effects of differential pricing policies.

关 键 词：双重差分方法 电力消费强度 产业结构 差别电价政策 

分 类 号：F123[经济管理—世界经济] F224