中国居民能源消费碳排放现状分析及预测研究  

Analysis and Prediction of Residents Energy Consumption Carbon Emission in China

作　　者：徐丽 曲建升[1,2] 李恒吉[1,2] 曾静静[2] 张洪芬 XU Li;QU Jiansheng;LI Hengji;ZENG Jingjing;ZHANG Hongfen(College of Resources and Environment,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou Gansu 730000,China;Lanzhou Information Center/Global Change Research Information Center,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Lanzhou Gansu 730000,China)

机构地区：[1]兰州大学资源环境学院,甘肃兰州730000 [2]中国科学院兰州文献情报中心/全球变化研究信息中心,甘肃兰州730000

出　　处：《生态经济》2019年第1期19-23,29,共6页Ecological Economy

基　　金：国家重点研发计划"结构调整与减排管理对碳排放强度的作用规律及参数化"(2016YFA0602803)

摘　　要：当前,居民能源需求不断增加,生活部门已经成为我国第二大能耗部门,随着居民生活条件逐步改善,居民能源消费碳排放还将持续增长。文章对1997—2015年中国居民能源消费碳排放现状进行分析,并基于ARIMA模型对2016—2025年居民能源消费碳排放进行预测研究,结果表明:1997—2015年,中国居民能源消费碳排放整体呈上升趋势,城市碳排放增速和占比于2005年超过农村;城市煤品碳排放波动下降,油品碳排放比2005年增速加快,到2015年与煤炭碳排放相差0.073 5亿吨。农村居民煤品碳排放仍然较高,油品和气品碳排放增幅远低于城市;到2025年,居民能源消费碳排放达到7.87亿吨,年均增长率7.13%;煤品碳排放持续下降,但减速较缓,油品碳排放自2016年起超过煤炭呈现快速上升趋势。Recently,theenergy demand of residents is increasing,and life department has become the second largest energy consumption department.The improvement of living standards will inevitably promote the growth of energy and carbon emissions of residents.In this paper,the current situation of energy consumption carbon emission in Chinese household is calculated using China energy statistical yearbook from 1997 to 2015.And then,the energy consumption carbon emissions of residents in 2016-2025 are predicted by the autoregressive integrated moving average model.The results suggest that overall energy carbon emissions are on the rise from 1997 to 2015,and after 2005,the growth rate and proportion of urban emissions are higher than rural areas;The coal carbon emission of urban illustrates a fluctuating decline trend;Oil carbon emissions increased rapidly since 2005,and compared with coal carbon emissions by 7.35 million tons at 2015;the coal carbon emissions from rural residents are still high,and the increased amplification of oil and natural gas carbon emissions are awfully lower than the urban;The results of the prediction indicate that the energy carbon emissions of residents will reach 787 million tons,and the percentage of average annual growth rate is 7.13% by 2025.The coal carbon emissions continue to decline with a slower rate,since 2016,oil carbon emissions have surpassed the coal which reveals a trend of rapid increase.

关 键 词：居民能源消费碳排放 现状分析 预测 ARIMA 

分 类 号：F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学]