Sensitivity of arid/humid patterns in China to future climate change under a high-emissions scenario  

中国干湿格局对未来高排放情景下气候变化响应的敏感性（英文）

作　　者：MA Danyang DENG Haoyu YIN Yunhe WU Shaohong ZHENG Du 马丹阳;邓浩宇;尹云鹤;吴绍洪;郑度

机构地区：[1]Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS [2]University of Chinese Academy of Sciences [3]Henan Province Development and Reform Commission

出　　处：《Journal of Geographical Sciences》2019年第1期29-48,共20页地理学报（英文版）

基　　金：National Key Research and Development Program of China,No.2017YFC1502904;National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.41530749,No.41571043

摘　　要：Changes in regional moisture patterns under the impact of climate change are an important focus for science. Based on the five global climate models (GCMs) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), this paper projects trends in the area of arid/humid climate regions of China over the next 100 years. It also identifies the regions of arid/humid patterns change and analyzes their temperature sensitivity of responses. Results show that future change will be characterized by a significant contraction in the humid region and an expansion of arid/humid transition zones. In particular, the sub-humid region will expand by 28.69% in the long term (2070-2099) relative to the baseline period (1981-2010). Under 2°C and 4°C warming, the area of the arid/humid transition zones is projected to increase from 10.17% to 13.72% of the total of China. The humid region south of the Huaihe River Basin, which is affected mainly by a future increase in evapotranspiration, will retreat southward and change to a sub-humid region. In general, the sensitivity of responses of arid/humid patterns to climate change in China will intensify with accelerating global warming.Changes in regional moisture patterns under the impact of climate change are an important focus for science. Based on the five global climate models(GCMs) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5), this paper projects trends in the area of arid/humid climate regions of China over the next 100 years. It also identifies the regions of arid/humid patterns change and analyzes their temperature sensitivity of responses. Results show that future change will be characterized by a significant contraction in the humid region and an expansion of arid/humid transition zones. In particular, the sub-humid region will expand by 28.69% in the long term(2070–2099) relative to the baseline period(1981–2010). Under 2℃ and 4℃ warming, the area of the arid/humid transition zones is projected to increase from 10.17% to 13.72% of the total of China. The humid region south of the Huaihe River Basin, which is affected mainly by a future increase in evapotranspiration, will retreat southward and change to a sub-humid region. In general, the sensitivity of responses of arid/humid patterns to climate change in China will intensify with accelerating global warming.

关 键 词：arid/humid PATTERNS CLIMATE change sensitivity ARIDITY index China 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]