基于集对可拓耦合的管制运行风险评价  

An operational risk assessment model for air traffic control based on the set pair extension coupling method

作　　者：赵嶷飞 万俊强 ZHAO Yi-fei;WAN .lun-qiang(National Key Laboratory of ATC Safety Technology,Civil Avia- tion University of China,Tianjin 300300,China)

机构地区：[1]中国民航大学国家空管运行安全技术重点实验室

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2018年第6期2059-2063,共5页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金委员会与中国民用航空局联合资助项目(U1633112,U1533112);科技部国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFB0502400)

摘　　要：针对空中交通管制安全系统的复杂性,以及评价过程中存在的不确定性等问题,综合考虑"人、机、环、管"下面的工作负荷、班组情况、空域情况、天气状况、管理、人员培训、设备故障、技术标准方面的8个主要影响因素。并将集对分析原理和物元可拓理论相互耦合,建立一种新的安全风险评价模型,采用熵权法确定各风险指标的权重。最后,选取了样本空中交通管制区作为研究的实例,并说明了如何运用空中交通管制风险分析模型对管制部门运行的风险进行评价。结果表明,评价模型能够真实反映出空管系统运行风险评估中的不确定性,能够帮助空管单位对运行风险进行提前预判,并采取有效措施以降低事故的发生概率,保障航班安全运行。Through an investigation and analysis of the air traffic control system,this paper has worked out an air traffic control operation risk assessment model based on the set pair extension and coupling method by taking measures to reduce the likely troubles and accidents involving safety.The principal assessment steps we have taken in this paper can be stated as follows:First of all,we have brought about a new model for assessing the safety level of the air traffic control,which is by nature a systhesis of the set pair analysis and the corresponding extension principles.Secondly,we have prepared the major risk factor indicators that may affect the safety of the air traffic control system and break them into the model input parameters.And,thirdly,this paper tries to divide the influential factors of the air traffic control system into 4 categories:human-control factors,hardware factors,software factors,and the surrounding environmental factors.Furthermore,the paper has also established an air traffic control safety system risk assessment indicating system so as to determine the weight of each index with the entropy method.In so doing,it has made it possible to get rid of the groundless subjective judgment leading to the soundless conclusions.Thus,it has been made possible to guarantee the confidence and credibility of the assessment of the air traffic control system with the risk assessment model.And,finally,this paper has given necessary instructions on how to use the air traffic control risk analysis model for proper assessment of the operational risks by choosing an air traffic control area as a case study sample.Thus,what we have done indicates that the assessment level of the operational risk of the ATC unit is the medium risk,which is consistent with the field survey results.The assessment model we have developed can truly reflect the uncertainty in the process of the said assessment and improve its accuracy.Since the model we have worked out is concise and convenient,it can provide the risk pre-judgment or pred

关 键 词：安全管理工程 空中交通管制 集对可拓分析 熵权法 安全风险评价 

分 类 号：X949[环境科学与工程—安全科学]