基于VAR模型的黑龙江省农产品加工业与经济增长的关系研究  

Research on the Relationship between Agricultural Products Processing Industry and Economic Growth in Heilongjiang Province Based on VAR Model

作　　者：申林 刘秋艳 王红姝[1] Shen Lin;Liu Qiuyan;Wang Hongshu(College of Economics and Management,Northeast Forestry University,Harbin 150040)

机构地区：[1]东北林业大学经济管理学院

出　　处：《林业经济》2018年第12期51-56,共6页Forestry Economics

基　　金：黑龙江省社会科学基金“基于产业安全的外资进入对黑龙江省农业的影响及对策研究”(编号:12B038)

摘　　要：黑龙江省作为我国重要的农业生产基地,农产品初级加工占据巨大的比重,随着经济的发展,农产品加工业产值逐渐增加。文章以2001~2016年黑龙江省农产品加工业生产总值、农业生产总值、地区生产总值的数据,运用VAR模型,通过脉冲响应函数和方差分解分析三者之间的相互关系。结果显示:农产品加工业生产总值的增加对地区生产总值的增加始终是正面影响;但是农产品加工业生产总值的增加,在短期内,对农业生产总值的增加会产生负面影响,从长期来看,可以对农业生产总值的增加起到积极的促进作用。As an important agricultural production base in China,Heilongjiang Province has a large,proportion of primary processing of agricultural products.With the development of the economy,gross processing of agricultural products has gradually increased.This paper analyzed the measurement method based on VAR.Model of Heilongjiang Province's gross processing of agricultural products,gross agricultural production and Regional GDP from 2001 to 2016 through the impulse response function and variance decomposition.The result showed that:the increase of gross processing of agricultural products always has a positive impact on the increase of Regional GDP; however,the increase of the gross processing of agricultural products will have a negative impact on the increase of gross agricultural production in the short term,but in the long run,it will play a positive role in promoting the increase of the gross agricultural production.

关 键 词：农产品加工业生产总值 农业生产总值 地区生产总值 黑龙江省 

分 类 号：F326.24[经济管理—产业经济]