中美贸易争端对东亚经济体的影响——基于中国出口增加值的研究  

The Impact of the Sino-US Trade Disputes on East Asian Economies:Research Based on China's Exports of Value-added

作　　者：李晓[1,2] 张宇璇 LI Xiao;ZHANG Yu-xuan

机构地区：[1]吉林大学经济学院 [2]中国世界经济学会

出　　处：《东北亚论坛》2019年第1期41-63,127,共24页Northeast Asia Forum

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(2015ZDA017)

摘　　要：本文基于双边贸易出口增加值的分解方法,利用对外经贸大学全球价值链研究院提供的数据,分析了中国出口到美国的日本、韩国及中国台湾地区增加值的变化趋势,并探讨了外商直接投资对中国出口到美国的第三国增加值的作用。研究表明,1995～2017年间中国出口到美国的来自日本、韩国及中国台湾地区的增加值呈现出先快速上升、后逐渐下降并趋于稳定的态势,同时亚洲经济体出口到美国的中国增加值要高于其他国家和地区的增加值,表明中国不仅已经开始进行产业转移,而且对亚洲发展中经济体产业的影响要高于其他国家和地区。其主要原因有两个:一是中国通过承接日本、韩国及中国台湾地区的产业转移日益融入东亚区域生产网络,并在其中扮演着越来越重要的角色;二是随着中国自身经济实力的增强,对其他亚洲国家的产业转移日显重要。因此,中美贸易争端将会给日本、韩国及中国台湾等东亚国家和地区造成直接的经济损失,但所谓的全球产业链重构或者"去中国化"是不可能的。Based on the approach of the value-added of bilateral trade exports,this paper uses data from the Research Institute for Global Value Chains of the University of International Business and Economics to analyze the development trend of the Japan,Republic of Korea and China’s Taiwan’s value-added of China’s exports to America and test the effect of foreign direct investment on the third party value-added of China’s exports to America. The research indicates that Japan,Republic of Korea and China’s Taiwan’s value added of China’s export to America showed a rapid increase,then a gradual decrease and finally stable development between 1995 to 2017. At the same time,China’s value-added from Asian economies to America was higher than that of other countries,which showed that China has not only begun to transfer industries,but also has a greater impact on the industries of developing economies in Asia than other countries and regions. There are two main reasons for this :Firstly,through carrying on the industrial transfer of Japan,Republic of Korea,and China’s Taiwan,China is increasingly integrating into the production network of East Asian regions and plays a more important role. Secondly,China’s growing economic strength is of greater importance to the industrial transfer of other Asian countries. Therefore,SinoUS trade disputes will cause direct economic losses to East Asian countries and regions such as Japan,Republic of Korea,China’s Taiwan,etc.,but the so-called reconstruction of the global industrial chain or "de-Sinicization" is impossible.

关 键 词：中美贸易争端 出口增加值 产业转移 外商直接投资 

分 类 号：F11[经济管理—国际贸易]