大战略调整背景下的战略不确定性——特朗普对朝政策与半岛安全形势演进  

The Strategic Uncertainty in the Background of Adjustment of US Grand Strategy:Trump's DPRK Policy and Evolution of Peninsular Security

作　　者：葛汉文 GE Han-wen

机构地区：[1]国防科技大学国际关系学院

出　　处：《东北亚论坛》2019年第1期116-126,128,共12页Northeast Asia Forum

基　　金：2018年度国家社科基金重大项目(18ZDA130);中国博士后科学基金面上资助二等资助项目(2016M603020)

摘　　要：特朗普就任以来,在朝核问题上以"极限施压与接触"取代奥巴马的"战略忍耐",对朝政策出现重大调整。在过去近两年时间里,美国分阶段、有重点、同时亦极其灵活地运用军事威胁、经济施压、言语挑衅和外交劝服等多重手段,推动了半岛安全形势的新发展。特朗普对朝政策调整,无论是直接发出战争威胁,或是与朝鲜领导人的历史性会晤,均源自一种简单化思维,体现出对所谓"战略不确定性"的极度运用,可以看作是美国应对大国竞争战略的组成部分,存在战略遏阻中国的考虑。"极限施压与接触"战略并不足以决定性改变朝核问题的实质,更勿论破除半岛安全的根本症结。半岛形势很可能再次回到外交角力与多方博弈、周期性的"紧张和缓和"循环当中。中国需在深入分析把握美国对朝、半岛和对华政策逻辑、实质的基础上,进一步清晰中国相关政策的优先次序及时间和空间节点,助力实现半岛形势的总体战略稳定。Since taking over the presidency,Donald Trump abandoned Mr. Obama’s DPRK Policy of "Strategic Patience" instead of "Maximum Pressure and Engagement." In the last two years,Trump Government applied policies including military threatens,economic sanctions,diplomatic persuasion and verbal aggression,which highly influenced the development of security situation of Korean Peninsula. Trump’s adjustment of DPRK policy,including threatening war or historically meeting with DPRK leader,originates from a simplified consideration by utilizing "strategic uncertainty." Trump’s policy could be analyzed as a part of US grand strategy of dealing with competition of great powers,especially strategically containing China. Trump’s policy could not decisively change the status quo of Korean Peninsula or even resolve the problem of proliferation of WMD and the Peninsula’s security situation will go back to multilateral diplomatic wrangling. China should deeply analyze the logic and core of US policy to China,DPRK and the Peninsula and after that reset the priority of China’s strategic aims in concerning issues in order to realize the stability of the Peninsula’s security situation.

关 键 词：美国 朝鲜 朝核问题 战略不确定性 安全 

分 类 号：D815[政治法律—国际关系]