一种基于位移监测的“降雨阶跃型”滑坡预警系统  

An early warning system for rainfall stepwise landslide based on deformation monitoring

作　　者：黄晓虎 夏俊宝[2] 雷德鑫 HUANG Xiaohu;XIA Junbao;LEI Dexin(National Field Observation and Research Station of Landslides in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area of Yangtze River,China Three Gorges University,Yichang,Hubei 443002,China;Xingshan Bureau of Land and Resources,Yichang,Hubei 443711,China)

机构地区：[1]三峡大学湖北长江三峡滑坡国家野外科学观测研究站,湖北宜昌443002 [2]兴山县国土资源局,湖北宜昌443711

出　　处：《中国地质灾害与防治学报》2018年第6期68-76,共9页The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control

基　　金：湖北省教育厅科学技术研究计划指导性项目(B2017021)

摘　　要："降雨阶跃型"滑坡是一种在强度较大的降雨作用下,位移变形呈现出"阶跃型"动态演化特征的滑坡。其位移变形相对有规律,但由于变形时间长、临滑模式复杂,导致预警难度大。为了建立合理有效的"降雨阶跃型"滑坡预警系统,通过分析预警所需的关键判据,确定预警系统基本设计原则,并以王家坡滑坡为典型案例,设计5级递进式分级预警系统。研究表明:(1)王家坡滑坡的日降雨量、日位移速率阈值分别为25 mm/d、20 mm/d。(2)王家坡滑坡5级递进式分级预警系统,发出Ⅰ级绿色预警的方程为:0≤y <-1. 25x+10;发出Ⅱ级蓝色预警的方程为:-1. 25x+10≤y <-1. 25x+20;发出Ⅲ级黄色预警的方程为:-1. 25x+20≤y <-1. 25x+30;发出Ⅳ级橙色预警的方程为:-1. 25x+30≤y <-1. 25x+40;发出Ⅴ级红色预警的方程为:y≥-1. 25x+40。The rainfall stepwise landslide is a kind of landslide which means the deformation is a typical stepwise process under the rainfall with greater impact strength.The displacement deformation is relatively regular,but it is difficult to warn the stepwise landslide,because the deformation time is long and the sliding mode is complicated.In order to establish a reasonable and effective stepwise landslide warning system,analysis the key criterion and determine the basic design principles of early warning system,and design the 5-level warning system based on the case of Wangjiapo Landslide.The results show that:(1)The daily displacement rate threshold is 20mm/d and the daily rainfall threshold is 25mm of Wangjiapo landslide.(2)In the 5-level warning system of Wangjiapo landslide,the equation of I green warning level is 0≤y<-1.25x+10,and the equation of Ⅱ blue warning level is-1.25x +10≤y<-1.25x+20,and the equation of Ⅲ yellow warning level is-1.25x+20≤y<-1.25x+30,and the equation of IV orange warning level is-1.25x +30≤y<-1.25x+40,and the equation of V red warning level is y≥-1.25x+40.

关 键 词：“降雨阶跃型”滑坡 变形监测 预警系统 

分 类 号：U463[机械工程—车辆工程]