“马六甲困局”再思考:被“过度解释”的风险  

Re-thinking of the “Malacca Dilemma”: The Risk of Being Over-Interpreted

作　　者：陈腾瀚 CHEN Tenghan(School of International Relations and Publie Affairs,Fudan University,Shanghai,China)

机构地区：[1]复旦大学国际关系与公共事务学院

出　　处：《东南亚研究》2018年第6期131-146,151,共17页Southeast Asian Studies

摘　　要：随着"一带一路"倡议的推进,马六甲海峡作为海上丝绸之路的重要节点而受到广泛关注,而关于"马六甲困局"的说法已存在了十余年。作为主要的海上能源通道,马六甲海峡的战略意义固然不容小觑,但其在本质上并不能构成一个"困局",学界对其威胁内涵的三大假说在现实中均无法完全成立。相反,与其他的主要能源通道相同,马六甲海峡更多地表现出在中国能源需求日益增加前提下的"潜在风险"。这种对现实风险"过度解释"的现象,一方面是"忧患意识"和"受害者心理"共同作用的结果,另一方面也受到利益的驱动。"马六甲困局"的提法不仅没有正确认识到风险的程度,还造成了一定的负面影响,成为"中国威胁论"的来源之一。正确认识马六甲问题对于中国的能源通道安全建设、和平崛起形象构建、"一带一路"建设都具有重要意义。With the development of the"Belt and Road Initiative",the Straits of Malacca in the Maritime has received extensive attention as an important node of the Maritime Silk Road.And the statement about the"Malacca Dilemma"has also come into existence for more than ten years.As main energy channel,the strategic significance of the Straits of Malacca cannot be underestimated.But in essence,it shall not constitute as a"dilemma".Three hypotheses of the connotation cannot be fully true in reality.On the contrary,the Straits of Malacca is just like other main energy channels,more likely to have"potential risks"under the premise of increasing energy demand in China.The phenomenon of"overinterpretation"of realistic risks is,on the one hand,the result of the joint action of"sense of hardship"and"victim psychology".On the other hand,it is also driven by interests.The formulation of the"Malacca dilemma"not only failed to correctly recognize the degree of risk,but also caused some negative impact,and became one of the sources of"China Threat Theory".A correct understanding of the Straits of Malacca issue therefore plays an important role in the security construction of the energy channel,the image construction of China’s peaceful rise,and moreover,in the development of the Belt and Road Initiative.

关 键 词：“马六甲困局” 马六甲海峡 能源通道 安全风险 “一带一路” 

分 类 号：D822[政治法律—政治学]