室外温度对儿科门诊呼吸系统疾病患者的影响  

Influence of outdoor temperature on pediatric outpatients with respiratory diseases

作　　者：吴一峰[1] 陆蓓蓓[2] 谷少华[2] 黄亚琴[1] 王爱红[2] 张霞红[3] 徐奋奋[1] WU Yi-feng;LU Bei-bei;GU Shao-hua;HUANG Ya-qin;WANG Ai-hong;ZHANG Hong-xia;XU Feng-feng(Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Jiangbei District in Ningbo,Ningbo,Zhejiang 315020,China;NingBo Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention;Affiliated Hospital of Medical College of Ningbo University)

机构地区：[1]宁波市江北区疾病预防控制中心,浙江宁波315020 [2]宁波市疾病预防控制中心 [3]宁波大学医学院附属医院

出　　处：《中国公共卫生管理》2018年第6期724-727,740,共5页Chinese Journal of Public Health Management

基　　金：宁波市科技计划项目(2016A610198);宁波市医学科技计划项目(2016A02)

摘　　要：目的探索室外温度对儿科呼吸系统疾病日门诊量的影响。方法收集2014-2016年宁波市江北区各医院儿科门诊量及同期气象资料,采用分布滞后非线性模型(DLNM)计算RR值。结果气温与呼吸系统疾病门诊日就诊量呈"v"形关系,23℃时的室外温度效应最低,最长滞后10天左右。滞后0~4天,0~6℃时室外温度效应较强。温度对综合医院患者的效应比对社区医院的强。滞后≤3天,温度对急性上呼吸道感染的效应强于对慢性下呼吸道疾病的效应,滞后≥4天,温度对后者的效应更强。结论对儿科呼吸系统门诊病人而言,23℃是较适宜的温度。医院应在室外温度降至6℃前,提前做好就诊高峰的应对工作。即使是一过性降温,也可能带来一周以上的就诊量增加。可根据气温对急性上呼吸道感染和慢性下呼吸道疾病的效应调配药物。气温对有基础疾病者的效应可能更强。Objective To estimate the influence of outdoor temperature on daily outpatient visits of respiratory diseases among children.Methods The data of pediatrics outpatients department were collected during 2014 and 2016 in Jiangbei district of Ningbo;meteorological data were also collected during the same period.The relative risk (RR)was calculated by the distributed lag non-linear model(DLNM).Results The relationship between the temperature and the daily outpatient visits of respiratory diseases showed "V"shape,the outdoor temperature with lowest effect was 23℃ ,and the number of lag days was about 10 days.The temperature with highest effect was 0-6℃ ,lag of 0 to 4 days.The effect of temperature on respiratory diseases in general hospital was higher than that in community hospital.The effect of temperature on acute upper respiratory infection was stronger than that on chronic lower respiratory disease at lag 3 days and before,and effect of temperature on chronic lower respiratory infection was stronger from 4 days later.Conclusion For the pediatric respiratory outpatients ,23℃ is suitable.Rush days for visiting could be prepared by hospital before the temperature drops to 6℃.Even a temporary cooling may lead to an increase visiting for more than a week.Drugs can be formulated according to the effect of temperature on acute upper respiratory infection and chronic lower respiratory diseases.The effect of temperature on patients with underlying diseases may be stronger.

关 键 词：室外温度 呼吸系统疾病 儿童 分布滞后非线性模型 

分 类 号：R183.3[医药卫生—流行病学] R714.253[医药卫生—公共卫生与预防医学]