河南省“十二五”期间传染病自动预警情况分析  

Analysis on applications of infectious diseases automated-alert and response system in Henan province during the Twelfth Five-Year

作　　者：陈正利[1] 许璐[1] 康锴[1] 陈伟[1] 赵晓静[1] CHEN Zheng-li;XU Lu;KANG Kai;CHEN Wei;ZHAO Xiao-jing(Henan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Zhengzhou ,Henan450015,China)

机构地区：[1]河南省疾病预防控制中心

出　　处：《中国公共卫生管理》2018年第6期818-821,共4页Chinese Journal of Public Health Management

摘　　要：目的了解和掌握河南省"十二五"期间传染病自动预警系统的预警信号响应程度以及运行结果,对"十三五"预警系统的功能优化和升级改造提供参考依据。方法采用描述流行病学方法,利用SPSS20.0软件对河南省"十二五"(2012-2016年)传染病自动预警系统运行情况进行统计分析。结果"十二五"期间预警系统有32种传染病共发送预警信号128688个,及时响应率达99.21%,平均每天发出预警信号70.51个,平均每县每周约发送预警信号2.92个,预警信号疑似率和阳性率分别是7.04%和0.23%,预警系统灵敏度37.78%。传染病报告发病数与预警信号数的比值为8.13:1,成正相关(r=0.965,P<0.05)。结论预警系统整体运行平稳,预警信号快速响应,达到早期识别传染病暴发流行的目的,"十三五"期间需重点研究确定不同病种的预警阈值,提高预警阳性率。Objective To analyze the results of application and response degree of infectious diseases automated-alert and response system in Henan province during the Twelfth Five-Year and provide the reference for the function optimization and upgrade of the system for the Thirteen Five-Year.Methods Descriptive epidemiology method and SPSS 20.0 software were used to analyze response degree of infectious diseases automated-alert and response system in Henan province during the Twelfth Five-Year (2012-2016).Results A total of 128688 signals were generated in Henan province on 32 kinds of infectious diseases in the system during the Twelfth Five-Year.99.21% of signals had been responded immediately.The average amount of signals per day was 70.51.The average county sent about 2.92 warning signals per week.The suspected rate and the positive rate of early warning were 7.04% and 0.23%,respectively.The sensitivity of the system was 37.78%.The ratio of the number of reported infectious diseases to the number of early-warning signals was 8.13:1.The proportion of infectious diseases reported cases and all signals showed a positive correlation (r =0.965,P <0.05).Conclusion China infectious diseases automated-alert and response system has been worked well during,the signals of infectious diseases automated-alert and response system were responded quickly,which can identify early infectious disease outbreak purpose.However,during the 13th Five-Year,further research is focused on the warning threshold for different diseases and improved early warning positive rate.

关 键 词：传染病 自动预警系统 十二五 

分 类 号：R51[医药卫生—内科学]