粤港澳大湾区背景下的珠三角城市群产业—人口—空间交互影响机理  

Mutual influencing mechanism of industry-population-space in the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration in the context of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area development

作　　者：刘锦 田银生[1,3] LIU Jin;TIAN Yinsheng(College of Architecture, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou 510640, China;State Key Laboratory of Subtropical Building Science, Guangzhou 510640, China;Management School of Guangdong Peizheng College, Guangzhou 510830, China)

机构地区：[1]华南理工大学建筑学院,广州510640 [2]广东培正学院管理学院,广州510830 [3]亚热带建筑科学国家重点实验室,广州510640

出　　处：《地理科学进展》2018年第12期1653-1662,共10页Progress in Geography

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51678241);亚热带建筑科学国家重点实验室自主创新基金项目(2017KB08)~~

摘　　要：在粤港澳大湾区成为国家战略的背景下,具有经济地理优势的"湾区"地带,因作为推动全球经济发展的重要增长极而举世瞩目。本文以其主要组成部分的"珠三角9市"为研究对象,通过建立向量自回归VAR模型,利用脉冲响应函数和方差分解方法,对该城市群发展进程中的"产业—人口—空间"交互影响机理进行分析。研究结果表明:珠三角城市群的产业发展对人口的吸纳作用在后期近乎消退,人口集聚对产业发展的促进作用在中后期也明显减弱,而空间扩展对人口集聚的影响效果比较有限且后期呈现负影响。基于上述结论可以判断,珠三角城市群产业、人口和空间要素之间具有短期间的互促发展效果,但是尚未形成城市群应具有的长期稳定的互促机制。为推进粤港澳大湾区建设,珠三角城市群应积极推动产业类型不断提升以集聚高素质人口,积极引导空间扩张与人口增长匹配发展,并构筑多层次且协同互补的产业空间,以此深化产业、人口和空间要素的协同发展格局。The Guangdong- Hong Kong- Macao Greater Bay Area with economic geographical advantages is deemed to be the growth point that captivated the world for its impetus to the global economy. This article focuses on the nine main cities of the Pearl River Delta, analyzing the mutual influences among industrypopulation- space during the rapid development process of this urban agglomeration by constructing a vector auto regressive model and impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis. The results show that: The absorption effect for population in the development of industry in the urban agglomeration of the Pearl River Delta faded in the late stage. The acceleration that industry benefitted from population aggregation weakened in the middle and late periods. The spatial expansion effects on population aggregation were limited and have become negative in the late period. It concludes that in general a short- term mutual promoting development mechanism between industry-population-space was formed, but a long-term mechanism is yet to be developed. In order to promote the development of the Greater Bay Area of Guangdong- Hong Kong- Macao, the urban agglomeration of the Pearl River Delta should attract highly- qualified workforce on the basis of industrial upgrading, plan spatial growth according to the population aggregation, and construct a multilevel synergistic industrial space with complementary products and services. With these measures, the overall aims are to strengthen the synergistic development among industry, population, and space and promote the development of the Greater Bay Area of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao.

关 键 词：城市群 产业—人口—空间 VAR模型 交互影响 珠三角 粤港澳大湾区 

分 类 号：C924.2[社会学—人口学] F127