中国沿海登陆热带气旋活动特征分析  

Analysis on characteristics of Chinese coastal landfall tropical cyclone activities

作　　者：张金善[1,2] 殷成团 张然 熊梦婕 王乃瑞 ZHANG Jinshan;YIN Chengtuan;ZHANG Ran;XIONG Mengjie;WANG Nairui(Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute,Nanjing 210024,China;Research Center of Climate Change of MWR,Nanjing 210024,China;Department of Atmospheric Sciences,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210025,China)

机构地区：[1]南京水利科学研究院,江苏南京210024 [2]水利部应对气候变化研究中心,江苏南京210024 [3]南京大学大气科学系,江苏南京210023

出　　处：《水科学进展》2018年第6期759-767,共9页Advances in Water Science

基　　金：国家重点研发计划资助项目(2016YFC1402000);中国-保加利亚科技合作委员会第15届例会项目(15-13)~~

摘　　要：热带气旋是危害中国最严重的天气系统,分析和认识中国沿海登陆热带气旋活动的新特征对防灾减灾具有重要意义。依据近70年气象资料,采用统计学方法,对登陆中国沿海的热带气旋特征进行分析,研究发现:在气候变化的背景下,登陆中国的热带气旋发生了明显变化。近年台风登陆频数高于往年平均,其整体强度和最大值均呈增大趋势,年台风强度的不稳定性加剧;研究还发现台风强度越高,其生成地纬度带范围越窄且越靠近赤道;建立了高强度热带气旋(STY和SUPER TY)时间和纬度的关系"φ—m"。检验了台风季长与初旋日呈负相关且不受厄尔尼诺现象影响,台风季长符合正态分布并给出概率密度公式。Tropical cyclone (TC) is the most harmful weather system in China, so analyzing and understanding the new characteristics of Chinese coastal landfall TCs is of great significance for disaster prevention and mitigation. In accordance with the meteorological data of the past 70 years, the characteristics of Chinese coastal landfall TCs are studied by utilizing statistical methods. The results illustrate that there is obviously varying in characteristics of Chinese coastal landfall TCs under the circumstances of climate change. The frequency of landfall typhoon is higher than that of previous years, the intensity and maximum value are increasing and the instability of annual mean intensity is growing in recent years. It is also found that the higher the intensity of TC is, the narrower the latitudinal zone of TC generation is, and the closer it is to the equator. The relationship named "φ—m" is established between the time and latitude of high intensity TCs (STY & SUPER TY), and it is verified that the length of typhoon season is negatively correlated with the first cyclone day and is not affected by El Nino phenomenon. The length of typhoon season is conformed to normal distribution and its probability density formula is given in this paper.

关 键 词：热带气旋 风暴潮 气候变化 频数 强度 源地 

分 类 号：P444[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]