零利率下限、汇率传递与货币政策  

Zero Interest Lower Limit, Exchange Rate Pass-through and Monetary Policy

作　　者：王胜[1,2] 周上尧 Wang Sheng;Zhou Shangyao

机构地区：[1]武汉大学经济与管理学院 [2]武汉大学金融发展与政策研究中心

出　　处：《统计研究》2018年第12期26-44,共19页Statistical Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"不完全汇率传递与货币政策研究--经济全球化进程中的问题与挑战"(71773085);国家社会科学基金重大项目"‘一带一路’相关国家贸易竞争与互补关系研究"(16ZDA039);教育部重大课题攻关项目"经济新常态下中国金融开放与金融安全研究"(17JZD015)的资助

摘　　要：本文将零利率下限和不完全汇率传递同时引入货币政策分析,利用两国DSGE模型深入探讨了不同货币政策规则和最优货币政策问题。研究表明,零利率下限会导致汇率的"逆向调整"效应,从而加剧两国相对经济波动。当外生冲击源于国外时,本国汇率不完全传递与零利率下限两种扭曲所导致的福利损失将相互叠加,这一点与发生本国冲击时的情形正好相反。采取汇率管制的货币政策很可能加重外部危机的国际传导,造成本国更大的福利损失。因此,我国央行应当继续深化人民币汇率制度改革,加快人民币国际化步伐,积极推进人民币计价结算的国际化。This paper introduces zero lower bound and incomplete exchange rate pass-through into the analysis of monetary policy,and explores the different monetary policy rules and the optimal monetary policy based on open economy DSGE model.Research shows that the zero lower bound will lead to the "reverse adjustment"effect of the exchange rate,which will exacerbate the relative economic fluctuations of the two countries.While the foreign shock occurs,the welfare losses caused by the two distortions of the incomplete exchange rate pass-through in home country and the zero lower bound will be superimposed on each other, which is just the opposite of the domestic shocks.In addition,the policy of exchange rate control will further aggravate the international transmission of external crisis and increase the welfare loss.According to the research conclusions,we think that China monetary authorities should continue to deepen the reform of the RMB exchange rate system,to accelerate the pace of internationalization of RMB,and actively to promote international settlement of RMB pricing.

关 键 词：汇率传递 零利率下限 货币规则 

分 类 号：C812[社会学—统计学]